中國汽車製造的產業群聚：空間分析方法的應用

Abstract

本研究以中國2,352個縣為分析單位，運用OLS迴歸模型及空間分析方法的SLM及SEM迴歸模型探討中國各縣汽車製造業的分布及產業群聚的因素。 實證結果發現，中國各縣汽車製造業廠商分布存在不均衡現象，於17個省市的128縣呈現H-H的群聚現象，主要位於沿海地區、工業重鎮，及部分省交界處；並指出位於安徽等省內部分縣呈現群聚，為以往以六個汽車生產區域為觀察對象所忽略的分布現象。 本文發現，大型整車製造業的設置及鋼鐵製造業廠商家數之產業關聯因素、鄰近效應對各縣汽車製造廠商家數具有正向影響力，廠商透過彼此間距離縮短享有群聚所產生的外溢效果及區位接近的便利性效益，為傳統社會科學所忽略的重要變數。此外，市場規模因素、要素稟賦因素、經濟因素、創新能力因素及運輸成本因素等地區屬性變數對中國各縣汽車製造業廠商家數具有顯著影響，為汽車製造業廠商設廠的考量因素。

Taking China’s 2,352 counties as its unit of analysis, this study explores the determinants of the geographical distribution of auto manufacturers and industrial clusters in China by using the OLS regression model and two types of spatial analysis models- spatial lag model (SLM) and spatial error model (SEM). The empirical results show the existence of an imbalance in the geographical distribution of auto manufacturers among the counties in China. The H-H type of cluster was observed in 128 counties in 17 provinces. Most of these clusters are located in industrial cities, coastal areas or borders areas between provinces. In addition, the clustering of auto manufacturers in certain counties in some Chinese provinces, such as Anhui Province, is a distributional phenomenon undiscovered by past studies which used the six traditional auto producing areas of China as objects of analysis. This study proves that the industrial linkage between the establishment of large-scale manufacturers of entire automobiles and the number of steel manufacturers, along with the neighborhood effect, has a positive impact on the number of the auto manufacturers in various counties. The research indicates that auto manufacturers’ preference for the convenience and spillover effects provided by the shorter distance and proximity produced by clustering is an important variable which has been overlooked by traditional social scientific analysis. Furthermore, regional attributes- including market scale, factor endowment effects, economic factors, innovative capabilities and transportation costs- significantly affect the number of auto manufacturers in counties within China and should be taken into account by auto manufacturers planning to establish factories.