稅制改革對台灣總體經濟影響之研究

Abstract

本研究的主要目的乃藉由建構一動態可計算一般均衡分析模型，來評估我國日後可行的兩項稅改政策的經濟效益。 首先，參酌歐美國家在低稅率環境中、維持財政穩健的配套措施後，本研究將調高加值型營業稅率，列為探討議題。此外，根據其他實施兩稅合一國家的國際改革趨勢，本文也同時評估將設算扣抵制改成股利半免制的經濟效果。 本研究的動態CGE模型，乃以靜態ROCGEM模型為基礎，並在實證模型中進行了許多延伸處理。首先，本研究參考澳洲動態CGE模型中的ORANI-ND模型對投資的處理，在ROCGEM模型加入資本累積的跨期連結機制。 此外，相較於其他CGE模型，本研究將保留盈餘與其他資本拆解，並增述其行為方程式。另外，也在模型中將家庭的股利所得與其他所得拆解開來，並針對企業將盈餘的一部份配給各階層家庭，作為股利所得，增列其行為方程式。 最後，本研究並依「加值型及非加值型營業稅法」第16條中加值營業稅與貨物稅的關聯，修訂模型中租稅稽徵之行為方程式，將貨物稅納為加值營業稅的稅基。 實證結果顯示：調高加值型營業稅率後，政府整體稅收將能增加。而將設算扣抵改成股利半免，稅收也將提高。

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effects of the proposed tax reform by establishing the Taiwan dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The main model in this study is revised from ROCGEM model and the Australian ORANI-ND model, wihich is a dynamic, multisectoral, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Taiwan’s economy, developed specifically to analyze the income revenue and expenditure equations. The distinguished feature of this dynamic model is that it discribes the VAT feature under article 16 of 'Value-added and Non-value-added Business Tax Act', and deals with retained earnings and dividends payment decisions as well. According to the articles of Business Tax Act, this paper carefully specifies the VAT structure to catch the effects of the sales tax reform on aggregate economy. In addition to that, the effect of the move away from imputation systems to modified classical systems (or 'partial dividend exemption') is also exployed in this study.