印度智慧型手機產業結構與競爭策略之情境分析

Abstract

全球智慧型手機產業雖然仍在高速成長，但成長動能已經由成熟市場轉向新興市場，印度這個人口數與行動通訊用戶僅次於中國的市場，其智慧型手機的發展令人高度期待。本研究擬以國際智慧型手機品牌業者為中心，透過產業分析的理論與情境分析法的架構，探討印度智慧型手機產業的未來可能發展情境，期能提供相關業者規劃競爭策略之參考。 分析印度智慧型手機產業歷史與產業現況，目前國際智慧型手機品牌業者面臨產業內價格競爭壓力、上下游廠商中高程度議價力、互補資產的中高程度議價力、以及印度本土品牌的中度進入威脅。在產業分析過程中，本研究亦發現軟體平台與行動應用服務內容的關鍵性，晶片業者的公版解決方案將會帶動低價智慧型手機在印度起飛。 據此，本研究進一步依照政府的電信政策、電信業者的策略與主要晶片廠商的策略等不確定性構面，建立了多種產業發展情境，然後確立了四種合理的情境，再分別針對不同情境討論廠商的應對策略。本研究建議國際品牌廠商應主動影響產業走向政府開放的電信政策與電信業者積極主導帶動智慧型手機市場起飛的最佳情境，包括積極遊說政府加速實施NTP 2011、爭取電信業者的支持、強化與行動應用服務業者的互補關係、以及爭取與晶片業者策略合作以提高進入門檻。

Although the growth of the global smartphone market is still on the right track, the growth momentum has been shifted from the developed markets to emerging markets. As the second largest maket next to China in terms of population and mobil subscribers, India is expected to have explosive growth in smartphone adoption in the near future. However, lots of uncertainties lie ahead of the road of market development. The present research therefore undertakes scenario analysis approach to discuss the future landscape of smartphone market in India and its implications to global brand companies. Our research will start from exploring the competitive evolution of global smart phone players and critical factors underlying the prospective structure changes. We will then apply five-force model and scenario analysis to portray the future development of industry structure upon which competitive strategies would be based. From the history and present situation, global smartphone players face: 1). Medium-to-high level bargaining power from supplier and High level from buyer; 2). Medium-to-high level from potential entrant (India local branding players); 3). Medium-to-high level complementary asset specificity and rival price competition. At the same time, we also found that two issues are critical to the future development; they are 1). App store and content are key complementary assets; 2). The turnkey solution provided by Chipset vendors would help boosting the growth of low end smart phone in India. Based on scenario analysis, we identified several key scenario variables, including Government’s Telecom policy, Carriers’ strategy and Chipset vendors’ strategy. These factors were then classified into three axises and under which four scenarios were established. In the best scenario, global smartphone players face lower bargaining power and threat, higher specificity of complementary asset and consumer demand. Accordingly, the research suggests that global smartphone players actively influence the future through the following ways 1). They should push India government to expedite launching NTP 2011； 2). They should get storng support from carriers and strengthen the relationship with content providers； 3). They should actively cooperate with chipset vendors to constitute barriers to potential entry.