氣候變遷對台灣電力系統的損害評估

Abstract

氣候變遷的議題漸漸地受到重視，而如何將氣候變遷所造成的風險量化更是未來熱門的議題，本研究透過IPCC在AR4中使用大尺度海氣耦合環流模式（AOGCM）降尺度後的模擬數據分析2040年台灣地區氣候變遷對現有電力系統的影響，整合現有文獻將此影響成本化，再配合電力結構分析，合理假定台灣未來七種用電情境，並對此七種情境所需建置的電力裝置給予對策與建議。 對於未來的用電情境，本研究認為完全的使用再生能源的成本過高，以未來碳交易的前提下並不符合成本，除非未來碳價有大幅度的成長，否則再生能源與化石燃料兩項發電技術應平均發展，此外，各項發電技術只要超過對應氣候因子的極限值，其成本將大幅度的上升，遭遇此種情況的電力設備，需要考量是否要投資新設備或停止營運以符合成本，此外各項氣候因子中，降雨量的變化最大，也造成水力發電莫大的衝擊，尤其是東部地區，每年將額外支付數十億台幣。 因此，應重新思考未來電力結構布局，須規劃的更長遠，考量更多的項目，目前台灣電廠的建置除了環境評估與成本考量外，並無氣候風險的評估，建議未來需加入此項變因，氣候變遷對於水力發電與火力發電影響甚鉅，應改由其他再生能源取代其容量抑或是建置於影響較小的區域，如此亦可以減少能源進口的依存度，也可以減少排碳量。

Nowadays, the issue of climate change is more important and how to quantify the risks of climate change to the cost is a hot topic. This research assesses the damage of Taiwan power system in 2040 by Atmosphere Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model downscaling data published by IPCC AR4. Integrating the information and turning the damage to the cost. Coupled with the power structure analysis, assume seven type of power structures legitimately in 2040 and give seven type of power structures suggestions individually. This research considers the cost of power supply by fully renewable energy is too high and it couldn’t work if taking the carbon tax in the future. Therefore, renewable energy and fossil fuel power generation should develop balanced. In addition, technologies of power generation cost will be substantially increased, as long as exceed the limit. It need to consider whether to invest in new equipment or stop operating, if the power plant break the limit. Precipitation changes the most and impact hydropower greatly. Especially, the eastern regions in Taiwan will cost billions of dollars annually. Consequently, the government should reconsider the layout of the power system in the future. It needs more long-term planning and consider more factors. The power plants in Taiwan assess the environment and cost only. It should consider the damage of climate change extra in the future. The damage of hydropower and fossil-fuel power station are high. It should be replaced by renewable energy or construct in other regions where affect a little. This way can reduce carbon emissions and energy import.