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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 陳發林 | |
| dc.contributor.author | Wei-Chih Pan | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 潘威志 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-07T17:55:57Z | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2012-08-22 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2012 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2012-08-15 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | 1. BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2010.
2. IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4), 2007. 3. 經濟部能源局, 能源統計手冊, 2011. 4. IEA, IEA CO2 Emissions From Fuel Combustion Highlights. 5. Greenpeace International, Energy [r]evolution： A Sustainable Global Energy Outlook, 2010. 6. 王塗發, 經濟部能源委員會座談會資料, 1998. 7. C. W. Chao, H. W. Ma and M. L. Hung, “Developing an Integrated Environmental Assessment Model for Taiwan Waste Management System,” 3rd International Conference on Life Cycle Management, Swiss, 2007. 8. Y. Y. Chen, 以二階KLEM投入產出結構分解法分析台灣產業, 2008. 9. Chia-Wei Chao,Ming-Lung Hung and Hwong-wen Ma, “Plundering or Paying Tribute – An analysis on Environmental Debts and Loans of Taiwan”, 5th International Conference on Industrial Ecology, 2009. 10. Chieh-Jan Huang, Hwong-wen Ma, Development and Assessment of Electricity Policy for Sustainability, 2010. 11. 柳中明、許晃雄等, 本地變遷模擬推動與全球變遷研究服務,2008. 12. 柳中明、林淑華等, 台灣地區未來氣候變遷預估, 2008. 13. Juang, H.-M. H., and M. Kanamitsu, 1994: The NMC nested regional spectral model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 3-26. 14. 蕭志惠和莊漢明, 2002: 台灣地區春梅雨期短期氣候之模擬研究。大氣科學,Vol. 30, 91-312。 15. KPMG, Climate changes your business, 2008. 16. Barclays Capital, 2007 Equity Gilt Study, 2007. 17. McKinsey, A Cost Curve for Greenhouse Gas Reduction, 2007. 18. Ceres and Investor responsibility research Center, Corporate Governance and Climate Change: Making the Connection, 2006. 19. European Commission, Investment needs for future adaptation measures in EU nuclear power plants and other electricity generation technologies due to effects of climate change, 2011. 20. 經濟部能源局, 台灣電力長期負載預測與電源開發規劃摘要報告, 2010. 21. 經濟部能源局, 再生能源年度推廣目標與配比, 2010. 22. F. L. Chen etc, 台灣低碳電力結構分析, 2011. 23. Chen, F. et al, Assessment of renewable reserves in Taiwan, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14, 2511-2528, 2010. 24. Metz, B. et al., Eds., Climate Change 2007: Mitigation Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. press, Cambridge, 2007) 25. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations: WOULD POPULATION TO 2300,2004. 26. International Energy Agency: Key Would Energy Statistics,2009. 27. Kannan, R. et al., UK MARKAL Model:Chapter 5 “Electricity and Heat Generation”, 2007. 28. Krewitt, W. et al., Role and Potential of Renewable Energy and Energy efficiency for Global Energy Supply: Summary, Environment Research of the German Federal Ministry of the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, 2009. 29. 經濟部能源局, 97年各類發電單位成本表(燃料別), http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/Download%5CPolicy%5C98EnergyMeeting%5Cmeetingpolicy%5Csubject/SusDevMeeting/97%E5%B9%B4%E5%8F%B0%E9%9B%BB%E7%99%BC%E9%9B%BB%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC(%E7%87%83%E6%96%99%E5%88%A5).pdf . 30. Huth, R., J. Kysely, and L. Pokorna, 2000: A gcm simulation of heatwaves, dry spells and their relationships to circulation. Climatic Change, 46, 29-60. 31. Karl, T. R. and R. W. Knight, 1997: The 1995 Chicago heat wave: How likely is a recurrence? Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 78, 1107-1119. 32. AIG, AIG’s Policy and Programs on Environment and Climate Change, http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/76/76115/aig_climate_change_updated.pdf . | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/15940 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 氣候變遷的議題漸漸地受到重視，而如何將氣候變遷所造成的風險量化更是未來熱門的議題，本研究透過IPCC在AR4中使用大尺度海氣耦合環流模式（AOGCM）降尺度後的模擬數據分析2040年台灣地區氣候變遷對現有電力系統的影響，整合現有文獻將此影響成本化，再配合電力結構分析，合理假定台灣未來七種用電情境，並對此七種情境所需建置的電力裝置給予對策與建議。
對於未來的用電情境，本研究認為完全的使用再生能源的成本過高，以未來碳交易的前提下並不符合成本，除非未來碳價有大幅度的成長，否則再生能源與化石燃料兩項發電技術應平均發展，此外，各項發電技術只要超過對應氣候因子的極限值，其成本將大幅度的上升，遭遇此種情況的電力設備，需要考量是否要投資新設備或停止營運以符合成本，此外各項氣候因子中，降雨量的變化最大，也造成水力發電莫大的衝擊，尤其是東部地區，每年將額外支付數十億台幣。 因此，應重新思考未來電力結構布局，須規劃的更長遠，考量更多的項目，目前台灣電廠的建置除了環境評估與成本考量外，並無氣候風險的評估，建議未來需加入此項變因，氣候變遷對於水力發電與火力發電影響甚鉅，應改由其他再生能源取代其容量抑或是建置於影響較小的區域，如此亦可以減少能源進口的依存度，也可以減少排碳量。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | Nowadays, the issue of climate change is more important and how to quantify the risks of climate change to the cost is a hot topic. This research assesses the damage of Taiwan power system in 2040 by Atmosphere Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model downscaling data published by IPCC AR4. Integrating the information and turning the damage to the cost. Coupled with the power structure analysis, assume seven type of power structures legitimately in 2040 and give seven type of power structures suggestions individually.
This research considers the cost of power supply by fully renewable energy is too high and it couldn’t work if taking the carbon tax in the future. Therefore, renewable energy and fossil fuel power generation should develop balanced. In addition, technologies of power generation cost will be substantially increased, as long as exceed the limit. It need to consider whether to invest in new equipment or stop operating, if the power plant break the limit. Precipitation changes the most and impact hydropower greatly. Especially, the eastern regions in Taiwan will cost billions of dollars annually. Consequently, the government should reconsider the layout of the power system in the future. It needs more long-term planning and consider more factors. The power plants in Taiwan assess the environment and cost only. It should consider the damage of climate change extra in the future. The damage of hydropower and fossil-fuel power station are high. It should be replaced by renewable energy or construct in other regions where affect a little. This way can reduce carbon emissions and energy import. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-07T17:55:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-101-R99543077-1.pdf: 5953223 bytes, checksum: 43d36336c4374e44a3e28a3f5caa7efc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 摘要...................................................i
ABSTRACT...............................................iii 目錄...................................................v 圖目錄.................................................viii 表目錄.................................................x 第一章 緒論...........................................1 1.1研究背景............................................1 1.2研究目的............................................3 1.3研究流程............................................4 第二章 文獻回顧.......................................6 2.1台灣電力供需現況與發展..............................6 2.1.1台灣電力供給端現況................................6 2.1.2台灣電力需求端現況................................9 2.2台灣地區未來氣候變遷預估............................11 2.2.1統計降尺度模型....................................13 2.2.2動力降尺度模型....................................15 2.2.3台灣地區未來氣候趨勢..............................17 2.3氣候變遷與風險成本..................................18 2.3.1歐盟氣候變遷未來情境與背景........................19 2.3.2氣候變遷與風險的關係..............................21 第三章 研究方法.......................................23 3.1 2040年台灣電力總量分析.............................24 3.1.1情境假設..........................................25 3.1.2 供給與需求平衡...................................29 3.2 台灣電力系統.......................................34 3.2.1現有與計畫中的電力系統............................35 3.2.2電網與未定案電力系統..............................42 3.3風險成本估算........................................44 3.3.1氣候因子假設......................................50 3.3.2未來氣候預測與比對................................53 3.3.3再生能源蘊藏......................................66 第四章 氣候變遷對台灣電力系統的影響....................68 4.1現有電力系統........................................68 4.2計畫與未定案電力系統................................84 4.3 未來電力結構情境...................................86 第五章 結果與建議......................................94 5.1結果................................................94 5.2建議................................................96 參考文獻...............................................98 附錄 I 氣候因子變化量..................................101 空氣溫度變化量.........................................101 年降雨變化量...........................................105 平均風速變化量.........................................109 水溫度變化量...........................................112 海平面上升量...........................................113 洪水發生機率...........................................114 附錄 II 各發電技術對應氣候因子的成本估算...............115 核能發電廠.............................................115 火力發電廠.............................................119 水力發電廠.............................................131 風力發電廠.............................................154 電網...................................................160 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.subject | 未來電力結構 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 氣候變遷 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 電力系統 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 風險估算 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | Power System Structure in the future | en |
| dc.subject | Climate Change | en |
| dc.subject | Power System | en |
| dc.subject | Damage Assessment | en |
| dc.title | 氣候變遷對台灣電力系統的損害評估 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | Damage Assessment for the Power System of Taiwan due to Climate Change | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 100-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 陳朝光,左峻德,席時昶,陳誠亮 | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 氣候變遷,電力系統,風險估算,未來電力結構, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | Climate Change,Power System,Damage Assessment,Power System Structure in the future, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 167 | |
| dc.rights.note | 未授權 | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2012-08-15 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 工學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 應用力學研究所 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 應用力學研究所 | |
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