不動產實價登錄對營建業股票報酬率之影響

Abstract

為了使不動產交易資訊透明化並有效抑止房價的攀升，政府提出不動產實價登錄的政策，以健全房市的發展。本研究藉由事件研究法探討在實價登錄政策自提案至三讀通過修正法案消息發布等事件期間，該政策是否對上市櫃營建業公司帶來影響，亦利用迴歸模型分析在實價登錄顯著有影響的事件期間，以及上市櫃營建業公司股價累積異常報酬率與其存貨比率、負債比率、獲利能力等公司特性之關聯性。 研究結果發現： 一、市場可能預期實價登錄將使房地產市場受到負面的衝擊，股票市場也將此利空消息反映在上市櫃營建業的股價上，故在實價登錄政策消息發布時，其中事件期間二－馬總統公開希望盡快審議實價登錄相關法案、事件期間三－行政院初審通過平均地權條例及地政士法修正草案和事件期間六－不動產經紀業管理條例修正草案進行初步協商，此3個事件期間上市櫃營建業公司產生顯著負的股票異常報酬率。 二、上述3個事件期間的累積異常報酬率加總合計數與企業特性關聯性之迴歸結果如下：存貨比率較高、公司規模較大、成長性較高之上市櫃建築投資業公司，其股票累積異常報酬率較低；負債比率較高、獲利能力較高的上市櫃建築投資業公司，其股票累積異常報酬率較高。

In order to make real estate transactions information more transparent and effectively curb the housing prices hike, the government proposed the real price registration policy to improve the development of the housing market. Using event study methods, this study examines the stock market reactions of the construction industry to the announcements of the Actual Price Registration Policy and explores the relation between the stock cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) of this policy and firm characteristics such as inventory-to-total assets ratio, debt ratio and return on total assets. This study finds that the stock market reacted negatively when the announcements of the Actual Price Registration Policy are released. Among the seven event periods, the stock prices of the construction industry experienced significantly negative abnormal returns in the second event period, the third event period and the sixth event period. The regression results of CAR indicate: Companies with greater inventory-to-total assets ratios, companies with bigger sizes and companies with higher market-to-book ratios tended to have less CAR. Companies with higher debt ratios and Companies with greater return on total assets tended to have greater CAR.