1987 年外匯自由化對台灣貿易結構之影響

Abstract

本文探討1987年外匯自由化此政策變化對台灣出口市場配置是否產生系統性調整。本文採合成控制法（SyntheticControlMethod,SCM），建構台灣在未實施外匯自由化下的反事實結果，並結合空間安慰劑檢驗與多項穩健性分析進行推論。結果顯示，政策實施後台灣出口市場出現明顯轉變，台灣對美出口相對放緩，而對於中國與香港及東協國家的出口則呈現較快成長。此結果在安慰劑檢驗中皆具有統計上的支持。進一步從產業結構角度檢視，透過結構斷點檢定，發現化學工業與民生工業的調整最接近政策時點，反映其對成本變動與制度條件變化較為敏感。整體而言，本文結果支持將外匯自由化理解為一項降低跨境資本限制的重要制度改革，使企業更容易進行跨國配置調整，並進一步反映為出口市場與產業結構的中期變化。

This paper studies the impact of the 1987 foreign exchange liberalization on Taiwan＇s export structure, focusing on whether it led to changes in export market allocation. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) and placebo tests, the results show that exports to the United States grew more slowly after the policy, while exports to China and Hong Kong and ASEAN countries grew faster.

Structural break analysis further shows that the chemical industry and consumer goods industries around the policy period, suggesting higher sensitivity to cost and institutional changes. Overall, the findings indicate that the policy eased cross-border capital constraints, allowing firms to reorganize production and shift both export markets and industrial structure.