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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 楊睿中 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Jui-Chung Yang | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 莊姿婷 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author | Tsu-Ting Chuang | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-06-02T03:52:24Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2026-06-02 | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2026-05-28 | - |
| dc.date.issued | 2026 | - |
| dc.date.submitted | 2026-05-12 | - |
| dc.identifier.citation | Abadie, A., and J. Gardeazabal. 2003. The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country. American Economic Review, 93(1): 113–132.
Abadie, A., A. Diamond, and J. Hainmueller. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490): 493–505. Abadie, A., A. Diamond, and J. Hainmueller. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. American Journal of Political Science, 59(2): 495–510. Bai, J., and P. Perron. 2003. Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1): 1–22. Chen, P., C. Schive, and C. C. Chu. 1994. Export structure and exchange rate variation in Taiwan: A comparison with Japan and the United States. In T. Ito and A. O. Krueger, eds., Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, 227–246. University of Chicago Press. Chinn, M. D., and W. F. Maloney. 1994. Financial and capital account liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Korea and Taiwan during the 1980s. Working Paper 294, Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz. Chow, G. C. 1960. Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions. Econometrica, 28(3): 591–605. Chu, W.-w. 1999. Productivity growth and industrial structure: The case of Taiwan. Paper presented at the Pacific Economic Outlook Specialist Meetings, Osaka, Japan. Edwards, S. 1987. The liberalization of the current and capital accounts and the real exchange rate. NBER Working Paper No. 2162, National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w2162 Fabiyi, S. E. 2026. Capital account liberalization and the margins of trade. International Economics and Economic Policy. doi: 10.1007/s10368-025-00693-5. Ferman, B., and C. Pinto. 2021. Synthetic controls with imperfect pretreatment fit. Quantitative Economics, 12(4): 1197–1221. Guggisberg, M. 2025. Consistency of an intercept-shifted synthetic-control estimator under weighted parallel trends. arXiv:2508.05604. https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.05604 Helpman, E. 1984. A simple theory of international trade with multinational corporations. Journal of Political Economy, 92(3): 451–471. Hooper, P., and S. W. Kohlhagen. 1978. The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade. Journal of International Economics, 8(4): 483–511. Markusen, J. R. 2002. Multinational Firms and the Theory of International Trade. MIT Press. McKenzie, M. D. 1999. The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows. Journal of Economic Surveys, 13(1): 71–106. Moreno, R. 1989. Exchange rates and trade adjustment in Taiwan and Korea. Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 30–48. Obstfeld, M. 1984. Capital flows, the current account, and the real exchange rate: Consequences of liberalization and stabilization. NBER Working Paper No. 1526, National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w1526 San, G. 1994. The effects of NT dollar variations on Taiwan’s trade flows. In T. Ito and A. O. Krueger, eds., Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, 89–122. University of Chicago Press. Schive, C. 1994. How did Taiwan solve its Dutch disease problem? Research in Asian Economic Studies, 5: 183–202. Thorbecke, W., and N. Salike. 2013. Foreign direct investment in East Asia. RIETI Discussion Paper No. 13-P-003, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry. https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/pdp/13p003.pdf United States General Accounting Office. 1989. U.S. trade deficit: Impact of currency appreciations in Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong. Report No. GAO/NSIAD-89-130. Washington, D.C. 吳致寧、黃惠君、汪建南、吳若瑋。2012。再探台灣匯率制度。《經濟論文叢刊》，40(2)：261–288。 周濟。1999。一九八〇年代以來台灣總體經濟的表現。收錄於施建生主編，《一九八〇年代以來台灣經濟發展經驗》，頁93–130。台北：中華經濟研究院。 左原。1996。兩岸貿易統計方法的探討。《問題與研究》，35(5)：1–14。 朱雲鵬。1999。經濟自由化政策之探討。收錄於施建生主編，《一九八〇年代以來台灣經濟發展經驗》，頁133–170。台北：中華經濟研究院。 楊雅惠。1999。金融制度與金融改革。收錄於施建生主編，《一九八〇年代以來台灣經濟發展經驗》，頁427–462。台北：中華經濟研究院。 潘寧馨、林玉樹、陳嘉鴻、洪毓霞。2010。我國製造業傳統產業變遷之研究。行政院主計處研究報告。台北：行政院主計處。 陳惠薇。2013。我國經濟自由化歷程之探討。《經濟研究年刊》，13：183–206。 | - |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/102333 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 本文探討1987年外匯自由化此政策變化對台灣出口市場配置是否產生系統性調整。本文採合成控制法（SyntheticControlMethod,SCM），建構台灣在未實施外匯自由化下的反事實結果，並結合空間安慰劑檢驗與多項穩健性分析進行推論。結果顯示，政策實施後台灣出口市場出現明顯轉變，台灣對美出口相對放緩，而對於中國與香港及東協國家的出口則呈現較快成長。此結果在安慰劑檢驗中皆具有統計上的支持。進一步從產業結構角度檢視，透過結構斷點檢定，發現化學工業與民生工業的調整最接近政策時點，反映其對成本變動與制度條件變化較為敏感。整體而言，本文結果支持將外匯自由化理解為一項降低跨境資本限制的重要制度改革，使企業更容易進行跨國配置調整，並進一步反映為出口市場與產業結構的中期變化。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | This paper studies the impact of the 1987 foreign exchange liberalization on Taiwan＇s export structure, focusing on whether it led to changes in export market allocation. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) and placebo tests, the results show that exports to the United States grew more slowly after the policy, while exports to China and Hong Kong and ASEAN countries grew faster.
Structural break analysis further shows that the chemical industry and consumer goods industries around the policy period, suggesting higher sensitivity to cost and institutional changes. Overall, the findings indicate that the policy eased cross-border capital constraints, allowing firms to reorganize production and shift both export markets and industrial structure. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Submitted by admin ntu (admin@lib.ntu.edu.tw) on 2026-06-02T03:52:24Z No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2026-06-02T03:52:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 致謝 i
摘要 ii Abstract iii 目次 iv 圖次 vii 表次 viii 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究問題與目的 2 1.3 文獻定位與研究貢獻 3 第二章 政策背景與制度介紹 5 2.1 1980年代台灣總體經濟背景 5 2.2 1980年代外匯政策與制度的演變 6 2.3 1980年代台灣貿易結構與對外貿易概況 7 2.4 外匯政策的影響 8 第三章 研究方法與資料 13 3.1 合成控制法 13 3.1.1 合成控制法模型 14 3.1.2 預測變數與權重估計 15 3.1.3 政策效果估計 17 3.1.4 統計推論 18 3.2 數據與預測變數 19 第四章 研究結果 24 4.1 各變數的擬合結果 24 4.1.1 各變數之政策前擬合品質 24 4.1.2 合成控制組權重分布 25 4.1.3 台灣與合成控制組之各結果變數動態比較 26 4.2 安慰劑檢驗與穩健性分析 29 4.2.1 空間安慰劑檢驗 29 4.2.2 時間安慰劑檢驗 31 4.2.3 逐一排除法之穩健性檢驗 32 4.2.4 不同 donor pool 組成下的穩健性檢驗 33 4.2.5 截距項設定之穩健性檢驗 35 第五章 延伸分析 36 5.1 台灣與東協各國 36 5.2 產業結構調整與出口結構變化 37 5.2.1 Chow 結構斷點檢定 39 5.2.2 Bai–Perron 多重結構變動檢定 41 5.2.3 綜合討論 43 第六章 結論 45 6.1 研究總結：外匯自由化的作用管道 45 6.2 方法論層面的貢獻與限制 46 6.3 未來研究建議 48 參考文獻 49 附錄 圖 53 附錄 表 58 | - |
| dc.language.iso | zh_TW | - |
| dc.subject | 外匯自由化 | - |
| dc.subject | 資本流動 | - |
| dc.subject | 合成控制法 | - |
| dc.subject | 出口結構 | - |
| dc.subject | 產業結構調整 | - |
| dc.subject | Foreign exchange liberalization | - |
| dc.subject | Capital flows | - |
| dc.subject | Synthetic Control Method | - |
| dc.subject | Export structure | - |
| dc.subject | Industrial structural adjustment | - |
| dc.title | 1987 年外匯自由化對台灣貿易結構之影響 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | The Impact of Foreign Exchange Liberalization on Taiwan’s trade structure | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | - |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 114-2 | - |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | - |
| dc.contributor.coadvisor | 楊子霆 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.coadvisor | Tzu-Ting Yang | en |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 賴宗志;李宗憲 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | Tsung-Chih Lai;Tsung-Hsien Li | en |
| dc.subject.keyword | 外匯自由化; 資本流動; 合成控制法; 出口結構; 產業結構調整 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | Foreign exchange liberalization; Capital flows; Synthetic Control Method; Export structure; Industrial structural adjustment | en |
| dc.relation.page | 67 | - |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202601004 | - |
| dc.rights.note | 同意授權(限校園內公開) | - |
| dc.date.accepted | 2026-05-13 | - |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 社會科學院 | - |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 經濟學系 | - |
| dc.date.embargo-lift | 2026-06-02 | - |
| dc.contributor.author-note | dept_res 2 uuid | - |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 經濟學系 | |
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