我們能改變政府的氣候政策嗎？不同環境行動、政府氣候政策與文化維度之關係

Abstract

近年來，氣候變遷的衝擊與因應成為重要的公共議題，引起社會的廣泛關注，並積極敦促政府採取行動。多數國家都一定程度地回應了公眾的期許，開始設定淨零目標和提交國家自主貢獻 (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) 。然而，基於《聯合國氣候變化綱要公約》中所訂定的「共同但有區別的責任」原則，各國的減排目標存在很大差異，這使得人們無法判斷各國政府在制訂目標時，是否真的考慮了人民的意見，而設定更積極的目標。另一方面，隨著環境議題逐漸被重視，人民可以透過多樣化的環境行動，以實踐心中的環境理念。然而當個體擁有環境行動態度時，卻不一定會轉換為具體的環境行動，而轉換為環境行動時，每個人選擇的行動方法也不一樣，導致可能對政府的氣候政策制定影響力度不同。據此，本研究中使用了國際社會調查計劃 (ISSP) 環境組第三次調查的數據，探討環境行動態度如何透過三種不同環境行動 (個人環保行動、環境倡議行動、國家環保責任) 的中介，影響政府氣候政策制定的目標，以及對政府的信任和Hofstede六大文化維度的差異，是否會調節此中介路徑。研究結果表明，環境行動態度能顯著預測環境倡議行動和個人環保行動，而環境倡議行動和個人環保行動也能顯著預測政府設定之無條件NDC下，人均碳排量減量的目標，然而僅環境倡議行動之中介效果達顯著。此外在調節式中介分析上，政府信任越高、權力距離越低、放任傾向越高的社會，其中介效果會越強，人民的態度更能改變政府政策。

In recent years, the impacts of and responses to climate change have emerged as critical public issues, garnering widespread social attention and prompting active public pressure on governments to take action. Most nations have responded to these public expectations to varying degrees by establishing net-zero targets and submitting Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). However, grounded in the principle of "Common But Differentiated Responsibilities" outlined in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), emission reduction targets vary significantly across nations. Consequently, it remains difficult to determine whether governments genuinely incorporate public opinion to establish more ambitious targets when formulating these goals. Concurrently, as environmental issues gain prominence, individuals are increasingly able to translate their environmental philosophies into practice through diverse environmental actions. However, possessing an attitude toward environmental action does not necessarily translate into concrete behavior. Furthermore, when such translation occurs, the specific methods chosen vary among individuals, potentially resulting in differing degrees of influence on government climate policy formulation. Accordingly, this study utilizes data from the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) Environment III Survey to investigate how attitudes toward environmental action influence government climate policy targets—specifically per capita carbon emission reductions under unconditional NDCs—through the mediation of three distinct environmental actions: private environmental behaviors, environmental advocacy, and national environmental responsibility. Additionally, the study examines whether trust in government and differences in Hofstede’s six cultural dimensions moderate these mediated pathways. The results indicate that environmental action attitudes significantly predict both environmental advocacy and private environmental behaviors. While both actions significantly predict government targets for per capita carbon emission reductions under unconditional NDCs, only the mediation effect of environmental advocacy was found to be statistically significant. Furthermore, moderated mediation analysis reveals that the mediation effect is stronger in societies characterized by higher trust in government, lower power distance, and higher indulgence. In such contexts, public attitudes possess a greater capacity to influence government policy.