夾在北京與臺北之間：加勒比海國家在外交承認中對經濟誘因與政治自主性的權衡與因應

Abstract

本碩士論文分析加勒比海國家如何在中華人民共和國(中國大陸，PRC)與中華 民國(臺灣，ROC)之間的外交競爭中進行抉擇，研究背景為北京在國際舞台上的崛起，以及自1990年代以來美國在該地區的相對撤退。由於加勒比地區目前幾乎承擔了臺灣剩餘盟邦的三分之一，該地區因此處於經濟邏輯與主權議題交織的地緣政治競爭核心。 本研究基於對加勒比海各國政府發表的演說、官方聲明、外交公報及政治文件的質性與詞彙分析，並採用一個三層次的理論框架(系統層、國家層與個人層)， 靈感來自小國研究，同時融入經濟外交、支票外交、戰狼外交與創意外交等概念。研究以三個假說為結構:1. 中國的經濟援助並不必然保證外交忠誠;2.加勒比國家對中國誘因的回應高度受到政治領袖取向與個人特質影響;3. 主權被加勒比國家視為可在非對稱國際體系中協商的資源。 透過追蹤2000年至2025年間加勒比國家與北京及臺北的外交關係演變，論文顯 示部分國家曾轉換承認對象，有些國家保持抵抗，另一些則在兩大權力極之間擺盪。這些選擇反映了小國在追求經濟利益、維護政治自主與主權，以及管理結構性依賴之間的持續張力。 在臺灣與中國的競爭脈絡下，加勒比海外交提供了一個理解小國在多極化與競爭性國際秩序中外交行為的特殊視角。

This Master Thesis analyzes how Caribbean states navigate the diplomatic rivalry between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (Taiwan), in a context marked by Beijing's rise on the international stage and the relative disengagement of the United States in the region since the 1990s. With the Caribbean region now home to nearly a third of Taiwan's remaining allies, it finds itself at the heart of a geopolitical competition where economic logic and sovereignty issues intersect. The research is based on a qualitative and lexicographical analysis of speeches, official statements, diplomatic communiqués and political documents issued by Caribbean governments. It uses a theoretical framework with three levels of analysis (systemic, state and individual), inspired by studies on small states, while incorporating the concepts of economic diplomacy, checkbook diplomacy, wolf warrior diplomacy and creative diplomacy. Three hypotheses structure the study: (1) Chinese economic aid does not systematically guarantee diplomatic loyalty; (2) Caribbean states' choices in response to Chinese incentives are strongly shaped by the orientations and personalities of political leaders; (3) sovereignty is used by Caribbean states as a negotiable resource in an asymmetrical international system. By tracing the evolution of Caribbean countries' diplomatic relations with Beijing and Taipei between 2000 and 2025, the thesis shows how some states switched their recognition, others resisted and still others oscillated between the two poles of power. These choices reflect the constant tension between the search for economic advantages, the assertion of political autonomy and sovereignty and the management of the structural dependence of these small states. Caribbean diplomacy in the context of the rivalry between Taiwan and China provides a privileged vantage point for understanding the diplomacy of small states in a multipolar and competitive international order.