年輕選民與政黨版圖：2024年總統大選空間分析

Abstract

本研究聚焦於2024年總統大選「三黨鼎立」競爭結構下，青年人口的地理集聚是否改變既有政黨版圖。研究以「青年人口是否構成特定政黨支持的空間基礎」與「青年人口集聚區是否更容易出現藍綠支持基礎鬆動」為兩個相互關聯的問題意識，從集體層次資料與空間分析的視角出發，檢驗青年人口在地理分布上的特徵，如何影響候選人獲票表現，並與政黨支持結構的變化相關聯。 實證結果顯示，就「青年人口是否構成特定政黨支持的空間基礎」此一問題意識上，青年人口比例與三位總統候選人獲票率呈現差異化關聯。青年人口高度集中的地區，對民眾黨形成穩定的支持基礎，相對地，並未成為民進黨和國民黨的支持基礎。此外，就「青年人口集聚區是否更容易出現藍綠支持基礎鬆動」此問題意識上，青年人口聚集地區，兩大傳統政黨原有的青年支持基礎，同時都在減弱，進一步造成支持基礎鬆動。此一發現有助於從集體層次與空間依賴控制的角度，補充既有多以個體層次解釋青年投票行為之研究取徑，並為後續討論政黨競爭結構變遷與區域社會結構交織下的選舉地理提供實證基礎。

This study examines whether the geographic concentration of young people reshaped Taiwan’s established party landscape under the “Three-party competition” of the 2024 presidential election. It is guided by two related research questions: (1) whether the youth population constitutes a spatial basis of support for a particular party, and (2) whether areas with a high concentration of young people are more likely to experience weakening in the traditional Blue–Green support bases. Using aggregate-level data and a spatial-analytical perspective, the study tests how the spatial distribution of the youth population is associated with candidates’ vote shares and changes in the structure of party support. The empirical results show that, regarding the first question, the youth population share is differentially associated with the vote shares of the three presidential candidates. Areas with a higher concentration of young people form a stable spatial base of support for the Taiwan People’s Party, whereas they do not constitute a comparable base for either the Democratic Progressive Party or the Kuomintang. Regarding the second question, in youth-concentrated areas, the existing youth support bases of the two traditional parties weakened simultaneously, contributing to a loosening of their established support foundations. This finding helps to complement existing approaches—many of which explain youth voting behavior primarily at the individual level—by offering a macro-level perspective that accounts for spatial dependence, and it provides empirical evidence for further discussions of electoral geography under the interplay between shifts in party competition and regional socio-structural conditions.