新技術趨勢初期之市場非理性行為與企業因應之道

Abstract

本研究旨於探討新技術出現時的市場行為與企業因應之道。首先，依據Gartner Hype Cycle模型的五階段，分別以技術發展、資本市場行為、媒體敘事三個構面去探討鐵路與網際網路兩大技術泡沫經典案例。根據歷史事實分析歸納出技術泡沫發生的特徵與成因，並對照目前正在發生的兩大新技術趨勢，自駕車與AI，進行的軌跡。研究發現，先前兩大技術泡沫具有一定程度的共通性，而目前兩大技術熱潮也正依循同樣的路徑發展。 其次，在解析技術熱潮(或泡沫)的特徵與成因之後，本研究繼續探討新技術相關企業如何在大趨勢下之反應。本研究後半段，分別選取網際網路泡沫與當下的AI熱潮下成功與失敗的公司作為個案，透過動態能力理論之視角，嘗試辨識出相似的特徵。本研究發現，依據動態能力理論三構面，成功存活的企業都同時做對了感知趨勢、把握機會、資源再配置轉型等關鍵作為，而失敗企業則是在變化快速的市場之中，做錯某些決定而步向失敗。

This study aims to investigate market behaviors and corporate responses during the emergence of new technologies. Drawing on the Gartner Hype Cycle’s five-stage framework, the research analyzes two historical cases of major technological bubbles—the British railway mania and the dot-com bubble—through the lenses of technological development, capital market behavior, and media narratives. By examining historical facts, this study identifies common causes and characteristics of technological bubbles and compares these with the trajectories of two contemporary technological trends. The findings reveal that both historical bubbles share significant structural similarities and that current technologies appear to be following a similar developmental path. Beyond understanding the nature of bubbles, the study further explores how companies can respond effectively during periods of technological transition. In the latter part of the research, case studies of both successful and failed companies from the dot-com and AI eras are analyzed through the lens of dynamic capabilities theory. The results indicate that companies that survived and thrived were those that simultaneously demonstrated strong capabilities in sensing trends, seizing opportunities, and transforming resources and structures. In contrast, firms that failed often made critical missteps in a rapidly changing market environment, ultimately leading to their downfall.