地緣政治重構下的全球半導體供應鏈戰略： Fabless企業的路徑選擇與政策影響分析

Abstract

本研究旨在探討在地緣政治重構的背景下，全球半導體供應鏈所面臨的戰略選擇，並特別聚焦於無廠半導體（Fabless）企業的路徑選擇與政策影響。隨著全球化趨勢逆轉，以及大國間的戰略競爭加劇，半導體產業已從過去以「經濟效益」為優先的邏輯，轉變為以「國家安全」為核心的戰略佈局。本研究採用「政策擴展型分析網路程序法」（Policy-Extended Analytic Network Process, PE-ANP），透過對產業專家的深度問卷調查，量化分析各地緣政治與經濟因素對企業供應鏈戰略決策的影響。 研究的核心發現可歸納為三點： 第一，本研究證實半導體產業的戰略典範已發生轉移。研究結果顯示，「地緣政治風險」（權重 43.71%）已明確超越傳統的「經濟績效」（25.33%），成為影響供應鏈戰略的首要決定因素。此量化數據證實了產業邏輯已從「經濟優先」轉向「安全優先」的假設。在地緣政治風險叢集中，「捲入風險」（Entrapment Risk，權重 22.67%）與「政策不確定性」（Policy Uncertainty，權重 13.11%）被視為最關鍵的驅動因子，凸顯了企業在中美科技競爭下所面臨的嚴峻壓力。 第二，研究結果揭示了美國與中國無廠半導體企業之間顯著的戰略兩極化現象。雖然「友岸外包」（Friend-shoring，權重 45.80%）在總體評估中為最佳策略，但此數據背後隱藏著深刻的分歧。對美國領導企業而言，「友岸外包」是一種戰略共識，旨在平衡中國市場的「捲入風險」與持續的「政策不確定性」。相對地，如華為等中國企業則被迫選擇「在地化」（Localization，權重 54.60%），這並非出於戰略偏好，而是在美國制裁下為求生存的必要手段，旨在實現技術自主。 第三，本研究論證了此番戰略重組並非暫時或邊緣性的調整，而是一個穩定的新均衡。美中企業所選擇的迥異路徑，反映了其對根本上不對稱的地緣政治現實的理性適應。「友岸外包」在美國企業中的主導地位，以及中國企業被迫走向「在地化」的趨勢，標誌著全球半導體供應鏈已發生結構性且可能持久的碎裂。

This study presents the core findings of a Policy-Extended Analytic Network Process (PE-ANP) analysis, which can be distilled into three principal conclusions: First, the analysis confirms a paradigm shift in the semiconductor industry. Geopolitical Risk, with a commanding weight of 43.71%, has unequivocally surpassed traditional Economic Performance (25.33%) as the primary determinant shaping supply chain strategies. This quantitative result substantiates the hypothesis that the industry’s strategic logic has pivoted from an “economic priority” to a “security priority.” Within the geopolitical cluster, Entrapment Risk (22.67%) and Policy Uncertainty (13.11%) were identified as the most critical drivers, highlighting the acute pressures of navigating the U.S.-China rivalry. Second, the results reveal a pronounced strategic polarization between U.S. and Chinese fabless firms. While Friend-shoring (45.80%) emerged as the top-ranked strategy overall, this aggregate figure masks a deep divergence. For leading U.S. fabless firms, Friend-shoring represents a strategic consensus—a rational hedge to balance the immense threat of Entrapment Risk in China with ongoing Policy Uncertainty. In stark contrast, Chinese fabless firms such as Huawei are unequivocally compelled toward Localization (54.60%). This is not a strategic preference but an existential necessity, driven by realized sanctions and the immense domestic pressure to achieve technological self-sufficiency. Third, the analysis demonstrates that this strategic realignment is not a temporary or marginal adjustment but a stable new equilibrium. The starkly different paths chosen by U.S. and Chinese fabless firms reflect rational adaptations to fundamentally asymmetric geopolitical realities. The preference for Friend-shoring among U.S. fabless firms and the forced march toward Localization for Chinese fabless firms represent a structural and likely enduring fragmentation of the global semiconductor supply chain.