品牌價值與違約風險之關係

Abstract

本研究探討品牌價值對企業違約風險之影響，並進一步分析景氣循環與企業 永續發展在其中所扮演之調節角色。研究樣本涵蓋1998年至2023年間之美國企業，違約風險以違約機率（Probability of Default, PD）與違約距離（Distance to Default, DtD）衡量，品牌價值則採用Fernandez（2002）之模型與Interbrand品牌價值進行評估。結果顯示，品牌價值與企業違約風險呈顯著負相關，品牌價值越高之企業，其違約風險越低。在景氣循環方面，高品牌價值之企業在景氣衰退時，其品牌對違約風險的保護效果較強；而在景氣成長時，此效果則減弱。在永續發展方面，ESG表現與違約風險呈負向關係。然而，品牌價值與ESG表現之交互作用，在某些情況下將削弱品牌對違約風險的緩解效果。因此，本研究建議企業在制定企業永續與品牌經營策略時，應一併強化治理機制，確保相關作為不偏離企業核心利益，才能妥善發揮品牌降低違約風險的能力。

This study investigates the impact of brand value on corporate default risk and further examines the moderating roles of business cycles and corporate sustainability within this relationship. The sample includes U.S. firms from 1998 to 2023. Default risk is measured using the Probability of Default (PD) and Distance to Default (DtD), while brand value is assessed using the model proposed by Fernandez (2002) and Interbrand's brand value data. The results show a significant negative relationship between brand value and default risk, indicating that firms with higher brand value tend to exhibit lower levels of default risk. Regarding business cycles, the protective effect of brand value on default risk is stronger during economic downturns and weaker during periods of economic growth. In terms of corporate sustainability, ESG performance is negatively associated with default risk. However, the interaction between brand value and ESG performance shows that, in certain situations, it undermines the risk-reducing effect of brand value. Therefore, the study recommends that companies strengthen their governance when implementing sustainability and brand management strategies, ensuring that such efforts remain aligned with core business interests. Only then can brand value effectively contribute to reducing default risk.