價格透明度對房價的影響: 以預售屋市場為例

Abstract

本研究藉由內政部不動產交易實價登錄網站資料建構預售屋價格透明度指數，捕捉 2021 年實價登錄 2.0 實施前後預售屋市場透明度的變化，並透過此指數分析預售屋市場如何受到價格透明度的提升而影響買賣行為，進而改變均衡房價。根據國泰房地產指數，隨著預售屋市場資訊的揭露，議價率逐漸降低，賣方開價回落至買賣雙方接受的可能成交金額。顯示在透明化的市場，賣方開價趨於務實，將減少賣方開高再由買家殺低的情形。至於在房價方面，實證結果顯示，預售屋價格整體而言不受價格透明度影響，但藉由買家的所得水準與物件價位分組分析，中低所得的買家可以藉由實價登錄網的資訊，取得較低的均衡房價；相對地，高價物件的揭露會使得高所得買家增加物件需求，推升均衡房價。

This study constructs a transparency index for pre-sale housing prices using data from the Ministry of the Interior’s Real Estate Actual Price Registration website. Through this index, the study analyzes how improved price transparency affects buying and selling behavior in the pre-sale housing market, leading to changes in equilibrium house prices. According to the Cathay Real Estate Index, as information about the pre-sale housing market is disclosed, the bargaining rate decreases, and the initial asking price of sellers falls to a possible price acceptable to both buyers and sellers. This indicates that in a transparent market, sellers tend to be more practical in setting their prices. The empirical results show that, overall, pre-sale housing prices are not affected by price transparency. However, it is found that low- and middle-income buyers can obtain lower equilibrium house prices by accessing information from the real estate registration website. Conversely, the disclosure of high-priced houses increases the demand from high-income buyers, leading to an increase in equilibrium house prices.