台灣銀行業逾期放款比率影響要素之研究: 民營與官股金控之比較

Abstract

1989年7月我國修訂銀行法，一方面使銀行利率完全自由化，另一方面允許民營銀行的設立，開放金融市場給新的競爭者加入。但是開放的結果卻也讓台灣的金融環境陷入高度競爭的態勢。由於國內市場小再加上各家銀行規模不大數量又眾多，所銷售的產品缺乏異質性，人才養成又不足等因素下，銀行業者無法支撐創新，導致眾家業務皆集中在企金、消金或房貸等存款或授信業務上，彼此間殺價競爭，利差不斷縮小，開始陷入過度金融(over-banking)的狀況。此情況持續下，各家銀行為了爭取客戶，將有傾向降低授信標準，進而推升逾期放款比率。而金融機構的安定將會影響一個國家的民生經濟。引此，本研究期望能從銀行眾多的量化指標當中歸納出影響逾期放款比率的要素，以做為銀行管理當局等的參考指標。 本研究蒐集了2007年第一季至2014年第三季本國15家金控旗下的商業銀行為分析樣本並將模型區分為民營銀行及官股銀行。分析工具上則採用了縱橫資料模型(Panel data model)，以探討逾期放款比率與眾多量化指標之間的關聯性。 實證結果指出，在財務比率指標上，銀行的存放比率與逾期放款比率呈現正向相關。銀行的資本適足率與逾期放款比率呈現負向相關。備抵呆帳占逾期放款比率上則呈現顯著的負向相關。至於營業特性上OBU加上海外分行收益占比並無顯著性的統計關係，中小企業放款占比唯獨民營銀行呈現顯著性的負向關聯，而放款市占率上則呈現顯著的負向關聯。公司治理指標方面，董監事及大股東質押比率則與逾期放款比率呈現負向關聯，經理人持股比率呈現正向關聯，獨立董事占比則呈現顯著性的負向關係。最後，在總體經濟指標上，GDP成長率無顯著性統計關係，失業率於官股銀行的模型上呈現顯著正相關，而金融保險占GDP比率上則在兩模型同時呈現顯著性正相關。

The Banking Act of The Republic of China was revised in 1989. On the one hand make full liberalization of bank interest rates, on the other hand allow the establishment of private banks, letting new competitors entered the market. However, this also turned financial environment in Taiwan into a highly competitive situation. Due to the small market, small scale of Taiwan’s banks, lacking heterogeneity of the product and talent … the banks were unable to support innovation, leading all businesses are concentrated in corporate banking, retailing banking or mortgage business. Serious price competition between each other continued to narrow the interest rate spread. In order to win customers in such situation, banks will tend to lower credit standards, and then push up the ratio of non-performing loans. The stability of financial institutions will affect a nation's economic, thus this study expect to use some quantitative indicators to summarize the cause of non-performing loans ratio in Taiwan, giving some suggestions to government concerned and banks in Taiwan. This study collected the first quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2014 of the commercial banks (private banks and privatized government banks) in Taiwan as study sample. Also, the model used for analysis is panel data model. Empirical results indicate that in financial ratios, the non-performing loans ratio are positive correlated with deposit loan ratio, capital adequacy ratio is negatively correlated with non-performing loans ratio, coverage ratio is negative correlated with non-performing loans ratio.As for the operating characteristics, earning from OBU plus overseas branches is not statistical significant, SME loans ratio presents negative correlation, while the loan market share shows significant negative correlation . As for corporate governance, directors and major shareholders pledge ratio presents negative correlation, manager shareholding ratio presented positive correlations, members of independent director presents significant negative relationship. Finally, as for economic indicators, GDP growth rate is not statistically significant, the unemployment rate presents positive correlation, financial and insurance accounted for the GDP ratio shows significant positive correlation.