日本對印政策之轉變及對東亞國際情勢之影響

Abstract

日、印關係自2000年森喜朗訪印後穩定發展，不僅交流不斷，合作議題也出現範圍增大、議題拓廣之傾向。尤其在安倍晉三重執首相高喊「我回來了」之後，「日印關係」也註定將重回國際社會的「大頭條」。兩國自此合作關係突破不斷，不僅在2014年將關係升級為「全球特殊戰略夥伴」外，更在2016年達成商討已久的民用核能協議，被視為兩國關係發展急速增溫的最佳例證。 本文檢視兩國實際行為，發現兩國在戰略合作上出現緊密傾向，為避免亞洲落入由中國主導之單極權力分配，以及避免過度仰賴美國安全承諾，日、印在雙邊合作及多邊合作都出現突破。在2017年印太戰略橫空出世後，日、印關係重要性更不言而諭，兩國也將倚著印太框架加強區域連結，維繫亞洲多極狀態。 然而，抗衡中國並非日印合作唯一目的。兩國將打出兩面手法來應對中國崛起，除聯合美國及區域國家形塑嚇阻能力外，也將從多邊機制、雙邊交流尋求關係改善之契機，以圖國家利益最大化。 針對兩國發展前景，本文認為在中國威脅不減、美國安全承諾未定的背景下，日、印兩國合作將跨越領導人更迭因素，透過多邊機制、雙邊合作的加強在未來持續深化，並成為亞洲最重要的雙邊關係之一。

Japan-India relations has stabilized and improved after Japan Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori’s state visit to India in 2000. Since then, cooperation between the two countries has improved significantly, which is manifested through the cooperation on broader issues. Particularly, after Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s second inauguration in 2012, Japan-India relations have become the headlines of foreign affairs. Constant breakthroughs in their cooperation have been demonstrated through the upgrade of their bilateral relation into “Global Special Strategic Partnership”. Furthermore, the long-discussed “Civil Nuclear Energy Pact” was signed in 2016, which is considered the most emblematic achievement of improving relations between the two countries. This thesis looked into the actions of Japan and India and found that the two countries have stepped up their strategic cooperation with a view to averting Asia from falling victim to China’s dominance in the region under the uni-polar system as well as reducing their dependence on U.S security commitments. As a result, both bilateral and multilateral strategic cooperation of the two countries have witnessed breakthroughs. The implementation of the “Indo-Pacific Strategy” in 2017, further ascertained the significance of Japan-India relations. The two countries will leverage the existing “Indo-Pacific” framework to strengthen their ties with the Indo-Pacific region with the aim of maintaining a multipolar Asia. Nevertheless, balancing China isn’t the sole purpose behind the cooperation between Japan and India. To deal with a rising China, the two countries are deterring China through cooperation with the United States and other Asian countries within the region. Yet, Japan and India are both seeking improvements in their relations with China through leveraging a multilateral mechanism to optimize national interests. With regards to the prospect of the two countries, the findings of this thesis suggest that under the continuous threat of China and the uncertainty of U.S security commitments, Japan-India cooperation transcends leadership change and will enable the relation of the two sides to further deepen through a multilateral mechanism and become one of the most significant bilateral relations in the region.