極端氣溫之健康風險溝通及早期預警潛在效益評估—以心血管疾病為例

Abstract

氣候變遷造成極端溫度現象發生愈趨頻繁，首當其衝的族群包括心血管疾病患者及高齡族群，目前已有許多國家開始引進高低溫早期預警系統，提供民眾即時與正確的預測資訊，協助民眾採取有效的調適行為。本研究利用2018年國衛院委託中研院所進行的「早期預警及健康風險管理之潛在效益評估與風險溝通：以心血管疾病為例」問卷調查資料，透過主成份分析以及多變量迴歸模型，解析健康風險認知與調適行為的關鍵影響因子，結果顯示，健康風險認知度受到「年齡」、「心血管疾病經驗」、「氣候影響心血管疾病認知」、「未來溫度變化之認知程度」、「溫度變化敏感程度」影響；調適行為受到「風險認知度」、「家中是否有空調裝置」等因素影響。 其次，本研究利用假設條件評估法之雙界二元選擇法，估計政府建立早期預警系統之潛在經濟效益。評估結果顯示民眾的願付價格主要受到健康風險認知度、年齡、工作是否與醫護相關等因素之影響，願付價值的估計結果為每人每年365元，約占個人年所得的0.11%。若將願付金額乘上調查母體1900萬人口，可估算出國人每年願意支付約70億元來獲得健康資訊，此結果可做為政府建立預警訊息以及制訂氣候變遷調適策略之參考。

Climate change has caused extreme temperature phenomena to occur more frequently, leading to an increase in temperature-related mortality and illness worldwide. The elderly and people with cardiovascular-related diseases are especially vulnerable. Many governments introduced the high-temperature early warning systems to provide the general public with timely forecast information to help them adapt effectively. This study uses the survey data of 'Emergency Benefits Assessment and Risk Communication of Early Warning and Health Risk Management: A Case Study of Cardiovascular Disease' administered by the Academia Sinica to identify key factors influencing health risk awareness and adaptation. The results show that health risk awareness was affected by age, cardiovascular illness experience, knowledge of cardiovascular illness, cognition and sensitivity to temperature change. The adaptation behavior was found to be influenced by the health risk awareness and those who have air conditioning at home. In addition, this study uses the double-bounded dichotomous choice model of contingent valuation method to evaluate the potential economic benefits of early warning systems. The results found that peoples’ willingness to pay was 345 NTD per capita annually. Multiplied the sample mean by the population of 19 million in Taiwan, the total benefits are estimated to be 7 billion NTD per year. The factors influencing willingness to pay are health risk awareness, age, and occupation. The results can be used as a reference for establishing early warning system and formulating relevant strategies for climate change adaptation.