甲骨卜辭可能年代分布的運算以及圖表視覺化呈現

Abstract

甲骨文，是指中國商朝晚期王室用於占卜而在龜甲或獸骨上契刻的文字，時間大約分佈在西元前1300年到西元前1000年。由於甲骨時代跨越相當長，本研究希望可以知道更詳細的甲骨文的刻寫年代，故利用甲骨文五期斷代、分組分類等前人研究成果，來限縮甲骨可能的年分。之後進一步將卜辭中的干支及月分加以利用，並考量到下面四個因素：同版甲骨中的卜辭是否有跨年的情形；夏曆、殷曆、周曆等曆法建正不同造成的歲首的誤差；不同時期可能有不同的置閏情形；殷商時的月首與實際朔日可能會有幾天的偏移。 根據上面所述的資訊，再對照現有的殷商曆法，設計一個使用者能彈性手動設定不同因素的系統，以運算出甲骨可能的年份分布並視覺化呈現最後的可能結果。

Oracles refer to the words used by the royal family in the late Shang Dynasty to engrave on the tortoise shells or the animal bones for divination. The time of oracles is about 1300 BC to 1000 BC. Because the oracle bone spans quite a long time, this study hopes to know the precise years of oracles. Hence, I use the results of previous researches, such as the five-phase oracle bone time classification ,group classification, to limit the possible years of oracle bone. Then I further utilize the ganzhi (干支, Heavenly Stems and Earthly Branches) and month information in the oracles, considering the following four factors: whether the divinatory texts in the one oracle bones are made in different year; the first days of years are different in the Sha calendar, the Yin calendar, the Cho calendar; Different Intercalation methods are used in different periods; the firsts day of months may have a offset of a few days between the existing Yin Shan calendar and the calendar used in the real world Shang Dynasty. According to the information described above and the existing Yin Shan calendar, a oracle dating and visualization system where the users can flexibly manually set different factors is designed. It will calculate the possible year distribution of the oracles and present the visualized possible result.