轉型期的中國證券市場杠杆投資研究 —發展與監管

Abstract

作為證券行業從業人員，自2004年參加工作後，一直與股票二級市場打交道，期間親身經歷並參與了中國證券市場的兩輪牛熊市的轉換，中國證券市場還很年輕，只有28年的歷史，雖有幸參與了其中一半的時間，但每一次重要歷史事件的發生都使得我對證券市場的認識更進了一步。我們一直希望中國證券市場是個規範且具有長期投資價值的市場，但隨著每一輪經濟週期的轉變、政策的更迭，愈發感到這是一個非理性的市場，有太多的問題需要去解決。最近的一輪牛熊轉換就發生在2014-2015年，期間高漲的股指伴隨著史無前例的的巨量杠杆交易資金，有賺幾倍幾十倍的，有虧到血本無歸的，在利益誘惑面前，投資人是瘋狂的，專業金融機構也在其中推波助瀾，銀行、信託、基金、券商無不參與其中分享牛市狂歡。同時，伴隨著互聯網技術的興起，各種場外配資挾裹著各路資金紛至遝來，利用互聯網便捷的技術應用為投資人義無反顧地加上杠杆翅膀，可惜終究飛得高摔得慘，最終在一輪瘋狂的牛熊後能活下來的並不多，投資人普遍損失慘重。 這場牛市是由資金帶著杠杆快速帶起的，監管層也意識到了其中潛在的風險，因此在2015牛市後半段開始去杠杆，而去杠杆的速度之快、效果之猛也是出人意料，一輪輪股災接踵而至，從2014年7月2000多點起步的股市，在2015年6月達到了牛市頂峰的5178點高位後，只用了3個月時間就跌回2850點，2016年1月底又跌至2638點的低位，截止到2018年9月仍在2800點以下，中國證券市場首次由杠杆資金推動的牛市就這樣結束了。期間發生了什麼？杠杆投資是怎麼來的？為什麼有如此多的資金在短時間內聚集於股票市場？監管層用了哪些去杠杆的手段，以至於使得股市下跌如此驚心動魄？ 作為從業人員在此次杠杆牛市中也是使用了幾乎市面上所有的杠杆工具，並與所有杠杆交易的參與方都有接觸，身在其中才對於中國證券市場各路資金如何參與杠杆交易深有體會，覺得有必要對杠杆交易的生態做一番剖析，對於監管層的去杠杆時機和手法有一些建議，回顧全球證券市場的歷史，這一輪的杠杆資金的起落與美國和臺灣當時的市場有諸多相似之處，因此本文也從回顧證券市場的歷史開始，分析成因，分析各類杠杆工具，分析監管手段，給出建議，希望能為日後中國證券市場的小小進步做一些推演。

As a practitioner in the securities market, I have been dealing with the stock market since I joined the work in 2004. During the period, I personally experienced and participated in the conversion of the two rounds of the bull market in China's securities market. The Chinese securities market is still very young, only 28 years old. Although I have the privilege of participating in half of the time, every important historical event has made my understanding of the securities market a step further. We have always hoped that the Chinese securities market is a market with standardized and long-term investment value. However, with each round of economic cycle and policy changes, I increasingly felt that this is an irrational market and there are too many problems to be solved. The most recent round of bull-bear conversions occurred in 2014-2015, during which the index was accompanied by an unprecedented amount of leveraged trading funds. Investors are crazy, professional financial institutions are also contributing to it, banks, trusts, funds, brokers all participate in sharing the bull market carnival. Along with the rise of Internet technology, a variety of funds are wrapped in various funds. Investors have no hesitation in adding leverage like the wings, but unfortunately, after all, the higher the fly, the worse it falls. In the end, there are not many people who survived after a round of crazy bulls and bears, and investors generally suffered heavy losses. The bull market was quickly brought up by funds with leverage. The regulators also realized the potential risks. Therefore, in the second half of the 2015, de-leveraging began, and the speed of de-leveraging and the effect is surprising. The stock market crash came. The stock index, which started from more than 2,000 points in July 2014, reached the peak of 5178 points in June 2015. It fell back to 2850 points in only three months, Jan. 2016 it fell to a low of 2638 points. As of September 2018, it was still below 2800 points. The bull market, which was first promoted by leveraged funds in China's securities market, ended. What happened during the period? How did leverage investment come about? Why are there so many funds gathered in the stock market in a short time? What de-leveraging methods does the regulator use? As a practitioner in this leveraged bull market, I also use almost all the leverage tools on the market and have contacts with all parties involved in leveraged trading. I’m deeply aware of how the various funds in the Chinese securities market participate in leveraged trading. I feel that it is necessary to analyze the ecology of leveraged trading. I have some suggestions on the timing and methods of de-leveraging of the regulatory authorities. Reviewing the history of the global securities market such as the United States and Taiwan at that time. So this article begins with a review of the history of the securities market, analyzes the causes, analyzes various types of leverage tools, analyzes regulatory measures, and gives recommendations, hoping to make some deductions for the progress of the Chinese securities market in the future.