東亞十國成立共同貨幣區域之可行性探討

Abstract

近二十年來，東亞各經濟體的經濟合作程度日漸緊密，對於該區域是否能夠結合成如同歐盟之貨幣同盟的討論也越趨熱烈。本文利用Bayoumi 與Eichengreen(1997)所建構之最適貨幣區域(Optimum Currency Area, OCA)模型，以東亞地區十個經濟體近二十年來各項經濟變項之實證資料，檢視其成立共同貨幣區域的可行性。作者首先建構以雙邊匯率波動為應變項，產出衝擊、國家規模、通貨膨脹、貿易程度以及實質利率等經濟變數為自變項之模型，並利用最小平方法(OLS)估計係數，了解各項經濟變數對匯率波動程度的影響力。根據各項係數，將經濟變數之數據代入以估計匯率波動程度，即Bayoumi 與Eichengreen(1997)所稱之最適貨幣區域指數(OCA Index)，來檢視兩經濟體適合成立貨幣區域與否。結果顯示，東亞十國具備成立共同貨幣區域之潛力，且以中國為較適當之整合軸心國。而東南亞國協的重要創始國印尼、以及近幾年積極於作為東亞貨幣整合中心之日本，則呈現較高的匯率波動，與其他亞洲國家之間的貨幣合作關係較不穩定。

During these two decades, the economic cooperation of East Asian countries has become closer, and the discussion of the possibility of forming a currency union has been more intense accordingly. The research applied the Optimum Currency Area model created by Bayoumi and Eichengreen(1997) to measure the feasibility of East Asian countries to form common currency area, by the empirical data of ten East Asian countries from 1991 to 2010. The author first built the model predicting the bilateral exchange rate change by output disturbances, country size, inflation rate, trade openness and real interest rate, and estimated the effects of each variable by using OLS afterwards. Using the regression results, the author computed the OCA Index referred by Bayoumi and Eichengreen(1997) to forecast the behavior of bilateral exchange rate. The result showed that East Asian countries held the potential to for common currency area centered on China, and that Indonesia, the important founder of ASEAN, and Japan, who has been aggressive to be the core of currency integration in East Asia, both presented less stable currency cooperation relationship with other East Asian countries.