出口為甘比亞經濟成長決定因素之研究：以花生產業為例

Abstract

The objective of this thesis was to examine the causal relationship between exports and economic growth (GDP) in The Gambia using annual data for the period 1980-2010. Dynamic econometric models were estimated to test for time series properties: unit root (ADF) and Co-Integration (Johansen’s procedure). With this (time series) data, a relationship is established between GDP and manufacturing exports using an Error Correction Model (ECM). The empirical analysis suggested that the examined variables present a unit root. On this basis, the Johansen co-integration test analysis was used to lead to long-run equilibrium relationships among these variables. Then the methodology of error correction model (ECM) was applied to estimate the short-run and the long-run relationships between export and GDP. Through the Granger causality test, we can infer that there is a unidirectional causal relationship between export and GDP. The thesis used time series econometric techniques to test for the causal linkage between exports and economic growth in The Gambia. The results of the unit root tests showed that most of the series are stationary in first differences (series in levels have unit root—I(1)). According to the ECM results, the R-squared is found to be 63.49%. This statistically means that The Gambia’s economic growth (GDP) can be explained by its total export at a rate of 63.49%, showing that export is a good determinant of economic growth in The Gambia.