中國崛起對美國南亞政策之影響(1991~2013)：以攻勢現實主義理論檢視

Abstract

冷戰結束、蘇聯瓦解後，取而代之的是中國崛起，其不僅是經濟成長快速、 政治影響力大幅向外擴張，人民解放軍更是快速現代化。挑戰由美國主導的單一 國際結構，華盛頓將北京視為重大挑戰者，進而制定「重返亞洲」、「再平衡」戰 略等一系列的舉措，皆針對北京而來。因此，開始了美中兩國的大國搏弈。 本文所設定的場域為南亞(South Asia)，假設美國霸權將受到中國威脅崛起 所影響，並研究冷戰後的美國南亞政策(分別為對印度、巴基斯坦，及緬甸)，以 現實主義典範的攻勢現實主義理論作檢視：中國崛起，與南亞各國家的關係隨之 深化，此舉抵消了美國在南亞地區的力量成長，於是美國開始加強對南亞各國的 政策，以保障在南亞地區的國家利益。首先，將美國的南亞政策分為對印、對巴、 對緬，再進一步分為政治關係、經濟關係，及軍事關係；然後，依據攻論的理論 核心制定三層面的指標─軍事面、經濟面、政治面，再向下出各細項。用此檢視 美國的南亞政策是否依循筆者假設，會受到中國崛起影響，進而加強對各國之政 策。 最後，分析結果得知上述皆符合指標程度增加之假設，可見美國的南亞政 策乃受到中國威脅崛起影響，為了保證在南亞地區的國家利益、為了使美國影響 力在南亞地區持續增長，進而加強與南亞各國家關係發展，強化政策之制定，以 遏制中國力量向外滲透。因此，美國的南亞政策有三大核心：(1)防止任何一個 國家在南亞成為區域霸權；(2)維持區域平衡；(3)反恐行動。

The rising China has been widely viewed as the most important actor with far-reaching consequences upon the post-Cold War international system since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Geopolitical competitions between the incumbent hegemon—the United States and the rising China are now closed watched not only by policy-makers but also by International Relations theorists. At the center of the debate is about the strategic gesture of Washington and Beijing towards each other. In short, the core issue concerns offensive / defensive options the two countries may choose to deal with the other. Given the implementation of Washington’s strategy of “Rebalancing”, this thesis hypothesizes that the US would adopt “offensive” rather than “defensive” measures to offset China’s growing influences in the sub-continent of South Asia. It proposed empirical indicators to test to what extent Washington’s strategies towards India, Pakistan, and Myanmar from 2008 onward were “offensive” in nature, aiming at diluting China’s influences, checking China’s power and eventually establish a pro-US geopolitical sphere ensuring Washington’s supremacy. After carful studies based on empirical evidence, the offensive realist assumptions are basically verified. It further indicates that China’s expanding economic policy tools paradoxically invited Washington’s massive, all-round engagement in the region. Eventually the only reliable partner benefited from China’s clout and aids is Pakistan. Through “offensive” measures the US has regained its pivotal role which China can hardly compete.