印度崛起的政治與經濟分析（1991-2008）

Abstract

本論文從宏觀巨視的角度，以印度1991年到2008年間的政治、經濟發展為分析重點，輔以觀察同時期間台灣與印度間的關係發展脈絡，希冀以印度崛起的政治與經濟分析，得以作為台灣與印度發展關係時的借鏡參考。 受到蘇聯解體、國內政治與經濟情勢，乃至於中國改革開放成果的啟發與影響，印度在1991年採行經濟的改革開放措施；十餘年的改革開放，對印度的經濟發展、國家建設及國計民生帶來巨大且受人矚目的成效，高盛（Goldman Sachs）公司在2003年將印度與巴西、中國、俄羅斯並列為廿一世紀最具發展潛力的「金磚四國」（BRIC），印度的經濟發展潛力成為全球矚目的焦點。 全文以「自獨立至九○年代的政治經濟脈動」、「九○年代起的政治經濟新發展」、「印度崛起的機會」、「印度崛起的挑戰」及「台灣與印度關係的政治經濟觀察」為架構，以實存的時空脈絡、政治與經濟面向，以及內部與外部因素等三個維度，對印度的政治與經濟演進加以觀察，對印度的政、經發展軌跡進行探究，對印度崛起的機會與挑戰進行內部及外部因素的評估，全文在完成前述觀察、探究與評估之後，以其所得結果，從政治與經濟觀點，對台灣與印度雙邊關係的演進及互動加以觀察。

This thesis tries to use a macro vision to observe and analyze India’s political and economic development and the Taiwan-India relationship period from 1991 to 2008. In the post-Cold War era, the collapse of the Soviet Union proved that the planned economy was a failure, coupled with India’s political and economic situation, also aroused by the achievements of China’s economic reform. India adapted economic reform measures in 1991. In less than two decades, India’s economic reforms have already reached remarkable achievements in many aspects: in infrastructure, industrial and economic development and national living standards have made great progress. In 2003, Goldman Sachs picked India as one of BRIC states, and predicted that India will be one of the most economically promising countries in 21st century. India’s economic and market potential is attracting global focus. This thesis has a four-core analytical framework: “India’s political and economic development, from independence to 1990”, “Political and economic development after 1990’s”, “Opportunities for India’s rising”, “Challenges to India’s rising”, and “Observations on the Taiwan-India political and economic relationship”. In accordance with the three dimensions of 'chronological', 'political and economic aspects', and 'internal and external factors', this thesis will observe and analyze India’s political and economic development, using internal and external factors to assess the opportunities and challenges for India’s rising. In the last part of this thesis, according to the above observations and findings, from a political and economic point of view, observing the evolution of relations between Taiwan and India.