台北市傳統零售市場消費型態之分析-分量迴歸模型之應用

Abstract

傳統零售市場因區域性規劃所產生，多具社區文化的特色，有著不可取代的存在價值。然而，隨著現代社會的進步與國家經濟快速成長，原來興建的傳統零售市場逐漸無法迎合現代人的生活習慣，加上消費習慣轉變、來勢洶洶的購物中心與大型量販店，早已瓜分傳統零售市場的功能，讓許多僅供應生活日用品的傳統零售市場經營逐漸走入夕陽。事實上，傳統零售市場可以不只是生鮮魚肉蔬果的賣場而已，應要調整自己、重新定位，透過政府輔導與攤商的合作，實施有效的行銷策略方案，必能在市場競爭潮流中再創生機。 全文通篇將顧客價值分成二大部份，一為每週消費總金額，另一項則是將市場中銷售之產品品項區分為四大品類，以各品類之消費總金額當作顧客價值。利用分量迴歸(QR)模型技術來剖析每一位顧客於傳統零售市場消費時的消費狀況，並推測其未來的顧客價值所在，同時導入顧客分群的概念，將顧客視為不同價值的個體，分別針對不同顧客群，提出有效行銷策略方案，幫助業者與消費進行一對一的溝通，提升行銷方案的效益，使每位顧客都能發揮其最大效益並獲得最大滿足。 最終實證所得出的結論顯示，分量迴歸(QR)模型較普通最小帄方迴歸(OLS)能夠精準的區隔顧客特性，一方面提供顧客客製化的服務，另一方面則帶領企業獲得顧客的終身價值，協助企業帶來更大的商機，創造買賣雙贏的局面。

The traditional retail market set up by the region planning. The market has characteristics of community's culture, and there is value that can't replace. However, as the modern society are advancement and national economy grow up fast, so that the already built traditional retail markets are out of date with modern market management. Life has become better off, and people’s consuming behavior has changed. The environment of traditional retail markets does not match with people’s needs anymore. Under siege of modern supermarkets, shopping malls and convenience stores, these markets have already dismembered the function of the traditional retail market, and let the market that supply the life daily necessities change the declining industry. In This research’s customer value we hold two purposes, one is the total amount of money every week, the other is the total amount of money of category that sales in the traditional retail market. We uses quantile regression model analyze purchasing pattern of each customer in the traditional retail market and find out the customer future value. Introduce customer segmentation concept, in accordance with different customer to practice marketing strategy. The result of this research will help company to do their promotion more efficiently and increase the customer satisfaction and loyalty. The study result shows the quantile regression model capture customer behavior more precisely than ordinary least squares. On one hand offer customization service, and the other hand lead company to obtain the customer lifetime value and enlarge business opportunity, create win-win situation.