試應用都市模擬模型Urbansim於台北市

Abstract

隨著人口的增長與發展， 都市的土地利用變遷研究重要性也漸 增， 影響都市的因子除了自然環境條件與資源限制外， 還包括都市發展過程中各種社會經濟因素彼此互動的影響， 進而反應在地用及產業型態上， 塑造出不同的都市型態與空間結構。土地利用和交通模型約在1960 年代初具雛形， 但要到1990 年代後， 各種都市綜合模擬模型才開始蓬勃發展， 進年電腦科技的進步提供處理數量龐大的空間資料 時所需之空間分析、處理、計算、儲存等能力， 對土地利用變遷的空 間分析研究有相當大的幫助， 本研究比較近年數個都市模擬模型之優 缺點後， 試選用Urbansim 模型應用在台北市地區。 華盛頓大學所發展的UrbanSim 都市模型，以動態不平衡 (dynamic disequilibrium) 為假設， 結合交通、土地利用、人口變遷、市場供需 等各種因子， 模擬都市的動態發展， 並從不同參與者的角度探討不同 的決策行為， 分析不同決策方案對都市產生的影響。本研究嘗試建立 模型之資料庫， 探討台北都會區之時空變化， 對台北都會區在在各種 建設與政策方案下的土地利用變遷過程有進一步的了解， 以提供相關 規劃與決策者參考之用。應用之成果在台北市整體部分模擬準確率約 為75%， 士林、大同、中正、松山可高達90%以上， 但北投、信義則 分別只有22%和45%， 推論與事件設定有關。模型結果在都市模擬上 具有應用價值， 可提供細部時空間的變化模擬資料， 供決策者使用， 但因資料量大且處理複雜， 未來建議配合更有效率的處理工具。

According to the development of society and increasing population, the role land use change research played is getting much more important. Except natural environment condition and resource constrains, there are some socioeconomics factors to interact with others to form the diversity of city pattern and spatial structure. The land use and transportation model developed at 1960s and boomed at the later half of 1990s. In the recent, the improving computer science provides the analyzing, dealing, calculating, and storing abilities for a large number of spatial data. It helps many researchers to develop the land use model. This study compared some of recently urban simulation model and choose Urbansim model to apply in Taipei city case study. The Urbansim model developed from Washington university research group is supposed as dynamic disequilibrium theory, witch combine with transportation, land use, population, and market factors to simulate the city development, discuss the decision behaviors of actors and analyze the impact by different scenarios. This study tries to built up the database support to Urbansim model, discuss the time-spatial transition of Taipei city and provide information for decision makers. The accuracy of whole city employer population is 75%, with 90% of Shih-lin, Ta-tung, Chung-cheng, Sung-shan district, while only 22% in Pei-tou and 45% in Hsin-yi district cause of the user define event. The Urbansim model is meritorious in urban simulation in providing detail spatial data for the decision makers. It was commanded to collocate with efficiency tool to deal with abundant data the model need.