臺灣總統選舉的地理脈絡

Abstract

大多數選舉研究將選民原子化而忽略其地理脈絡。為了提供地理脈絡影響臺灣選舉的證據，本論文結合有關 2004 年總統選舉的個體資料與地區資料，將選民放回到地方中。結果顯示，相似的選民住在不同的地方，投下不同的選票。首先，人們居住在福佬人比例愈高的鄉鎮裡，愈容易形成臺灣人認同；居住在外省人比例愈高的鄉鎮裡，愈不容易接受臺灣人認同。而臺灣人認同者投給民進黨的可能性較高。再者，國中以下學歷的選民若居住在愈貧困的鄉鎮裡，愈容易投給相對偏左的民進黨。然而，高中職以上學歷的選民若居住在愈貧困的鄉鎮裡，愈容易懲罰執政的民進黨。此外，經驗證據也支持選民在地方社會網絡中與其他人互動的論點。首先，在 2000 年民進黨得票率愈高的氛圍裡，人們愈容易與民進黨支持者討論重要事情，進而使原本未投給民進黨的選民容易投靠民進黨；原本投給民進黨的選民不容易背離民進黨。再者，當兩地人群的互動愈密切時，兩地民進黨得票率的變化幅度愈相關。總之，將地理脈絡考慮進來，能夠更完善地解釋投票行為與選舉結果。

Most of previous electoral studies atomized voters as detached from their geographical contexts. To provide evidences that geography does matter in voting in Taiwan, this dissertation shall put voters in their places by combining individual and ecological data of the presidential election of Taiwan in 2004. The findings show that similar people vote differently in different places. First, people who identify themselves as Taiwanese are more likely to vote DPP, while the higher the percentage of Hohlo in a township, the residents are more likely identify themselves as Taiwanese; the higher the percentage of mainlanders in a township, it is then less likely that residents identify themselves as Taiwanese. Second, residents with senior high school education or above are more likely to vote DPP in more affluent townships, while those with junior high education or below are more likely to vote DPP in more deprived townships. Moreover, the empirical evidences also support that people interacting with others in local social networks. First, residents are more likely to discuss important things with DPP supporters in the townships which DPP got higher vote share in 2000, while these conversations encourage non-DPP voters swinging to DPP and prevent DPP voters defecting from DPP in 2004. Second, the more the interactions between residents of two townships, the closer the correlation of changes of DPP vote share between these two townships. Therefore, voting behaviours and election outcomes can be better explained by including geographical contexts into consideration.