911事件後中、日關係的安全困境：敵意螺旋理論的分析

Abstract

「安全困境」是西方國際關係理論中用以解釋國際緊張、對立乃至衝突形成原因的一個基本概念。國家間彼此視對方為威脅，對方的行動，己方認定是針對自己而來，便採取回應的作為；相對地，己方的作為，對方也認定那是出於對其攻擊的意圖，因此，雙方在相互行動與反應的互動拉扯下，彼此的威脅認知就再度增強，而相對地，為了保障自身安全的舉措也會益加增高，整個過程猶如螺旋般前進。雙方對彼此意圖的不確定感，加上不安全感所採取的種種行為，造成對彼此敵意認知的強化，是故，敵意螺旋因而上升。而此敵意螺旋的上升便是造成「安全困境」的重要原因。 本論文的主要目的便是要探討中日兩國形成安全困境的可能性。尤其在911恐怖攻擊事件發生後，美國安全戰略的調整，日本安全角色隨之變化，再者中國國家政策的改變，皆影響了中日兩國的互動關係。基於此，本論文試圖回答三個問題： 1.911事件後，日本對中國崛起的認知為何？這樣的認知又如何影響其安保政策的內容？ 2.中國對日本的「正常國家」目標有何認知？又如何看待911事件後日本在安全保障政策上的改變？ 3.嘗試分析中日對彼此行為的解讀，會否造成「安全困境」？並嘗試預測中日兩國未來可能的發展，是競爭或者合作。

Security Dilemma is a basic concept for Western international relation theory to explain global intense, opposition, and reason for conflict forming. As nations see each other as a threat and considered to be against itself is a reaction to the movement of the other side. On the country, the movement of the other side is considered to be a intention of one side to attack each other. Thus, .under the situation of twisted interaction, both sides have increase their cognition of aggression. Oppositely, the countermeasure to protect themselves has become more and more, making the situation moving like spiral. The uncertainty of each other’s intentions and every actions each other took because of the sense of insecurity, which amplify the hostility cognition to each other. Thus, Inimical Spiral has ascended and the ascension is the main cause of Inimical Spiral. The main purpose of this theory is to discuss the possibility of China and Japan to form security dilemma. Especially on adjustments of American security strategy, the change of security role of Japan, and the change of national policy of China, which all affect Sino-Japnese Relationships after 911 attack. Based on this reason, the theory is try to explain three questions below. 1.What’s Japan’s perception of the rise of China after 911 attack? And how does the perception influence its national security policy? 2.What’s China’s perception of goal of Japan’s ordinary state? And what’s it reaction to the changes of Japan’s national security policy after 911 attack? 3.Whether trying to analyze China and Japan’s understanding to each other’s behavior would cause Security Dilemma? And whether Sino-Japnese Relationships are competition or corporation in the future?