全球化下臺灣與中東歐國家關係發展之政經分析，1990-2014

Abstract

本研究係以政治經濟分析為基礎，以臺灣與中東歐國家關係發展為個案分析，並探討全球化下臺灣的活路外交。由於中東歐國家政經發展程度不一，且臺灣可投入的外交資源有限，在與中東歐國家發展關係時，必須作理性選擇，以利將有限資源的效益極大化。基於上述，本研究嚐試將中東歐國家分為4個群組：維謝格勒(V4)國家(波蘭、捷克、匈牙利、斯洛伐克)、波羅的海國家(立陶宛、拉脫維亞及愛沙尼亞)、已加入歐盟的4個巴爾幹國家(斯洛維尼亞、羅馬尼亞、保加利亞及克羅埃西亞)及尚未加入歐盟的6個巴爾幹國家(塞爾維亞、阿爾巴尼亞、馬其頓、蒙特內哥羅、波士尼亞與赫塞哥維納及科索沃)，作為研究分析的主體。 本研究擬採用結構性(structural perspective)觀點，整理、歸納並說明自東歐民主化、蘇聯解體迄歐盟東擴時期，臺灣與中東歐國家關係演變的政經脈絡。而在優先目標策略的假設下，本研究認為臺灣與中東歐國家的關係建構基礎，仍應先持續深化與V4國家關係，其次為提升與波羅的海三國關係，以及儘速在巴爾幹區域內建立據點三個層次。 本研究結論發現：一、臺灣與V4國家所建立的關係模式是可操作的，可作為與巴爾幹國家關係建立的參考。二、臺灣在提升與波羅的海三國關係上，除必須有成本效益考量外，並須將該三國視為一個整體，就個別國家的特長，分別從政治、經貿、科技研發等層面進行，以協助臺商掌握該區域地理優勢，同時經營北歐及俄羅斯市場。三、經營巴爾幹具有接近能源及分享其潛在財富之優勢，亦應視其為臺灣對歐關係總體策略之一環。 臺灣在拓展與中東歐國家關係已近25年，應對既有政策通盤檢視，本研究提出以下的政策建議：一、應將經營巴爾幹視為新中東歐政策。二、儘速在巴爾幹設立官方代表機構。三、拓展巴爾幹關係時應有「雙布引擎」思維－布魯塞爾及布達佩斯。

Due to differential paces of political and economic developments of the Central and Eastern Countries, and limited diplomatic resources at Taiwan’s disposal, a rational choice should be made by Taiwan in developing its relations with the Central and Eastern Countries to maximize its benefits of the national interest. Based on accounts mentioned above, there would be four divided groups among the Central and Eastern Countries as subjects of the thesis, such as the Visegrad Group (Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia, V4), the Baltic Countries (Lithuanian, Latvia and Estonia), 4 EU Balkan Countries (Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia), and 6 non-EU Balkan Countries (Serbia, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo). The thesis would like to sort out and interpret by structural perspective the political economy context of the evolution of the relations between Taiwan and the Central and Eastern Countries, from the periods of Eastern European Democratization, through the break-up of the Soviet Union, and the EU eastward enlargement. Under the hypothesis of prior target policy, the thesis considers that the basis of the relations between Taiwan and the Central and Eastern Countries should still be constructed by three approaches. First, Taiwan should continue deepening its relations with V4, then promote its relations with the Baltic Countries, and set up a representative office in Balkan Region as soon as possible. The conclusion of the thesis has found: a. the model of relations of Taiwan and V4, which serves as a reference to build relations with any Balkan country, is workable; b. while promoting its relations with the Baltic Countries, Taiwan could take them as a whole and develop its relations with individual Baltic Country under the cost-benefit consideration, based on specific advantages such as political, trade and scientific areas. Besides, Taiwan should assist its businessmen in handling the Baltic’s geographical advantage to run businesses in both Northern European Countries and Russia’s markets; c. running Balkan should be particularly advantageous to having good access to energy and sharing its potential wealth, whilst it could be also taken into part of Taiwan’s grand strategy toward Europe. Taiwan had been developing its relations with the Central and Eastern Countries for nearly 25 years since, it is a good moment for Taiwan to review its current policy. Some policy suggestions would like to be offered from the thesis as following: a. running Balkan should be taken as a new Central and Eastern Countries for Taiwan; b. setting up an official representative institution of Taiwan in Balkan Region should be done as soon as possible; c. relations with the Balkan Countries for Taiwan could be developed by ‘dual-B drive’, in other words, through Brussels and Budapest.