「九二共識」與兩岸關係發展之政經分析

Abstract

由於國共內戰的歷史因素影響，兩岸自1949年分治以來，雙方從對抗到解嚴之後，逐漸和解。其中，「一個中國」原則是兩岸關係的核心議題，「九二共識」則牽絆兩岸關係近30年之起伏轉折。自1992年之後，兩岸不斷反覆於對抗、和解與交流的關係，始終繞著「九二共識」這個概念而展開。 中共對於「一個中國」原則的堅持並未鬆動，以「九二共識」堅持「一個中國」原則；臺灣社會認定的「九二共識」則是「一個中國，各自表述」，然而經歷民主化與三次政黨輪替後，對於「九二共識，一中各表」的認知與安排成為動態，其中涉及不同執政黨的歷史觀與利害得失的價值判斷。 本文探究國民黨政府遷臺後至第三次政黨輪替之各階段政權區分，透過歷史結構與文本分析，蒐集相關文本與資料，探討「一個中國」原則，經歷70年「各自表述」之歷史脈絡，包括「九二共識」的形成與轉變之因果關係；其次，經由政治經濟分析探討，國際政經局勢與兩岸政經結構調整對「九二共識」之影響；最後，探究兩岸政黨與政權輪替各階段當中，相關利害得失行為者對「九二共識」涵義的詮釋與影響。 研究發現，「九二共識」的作用僅存於海峽兩岸互信與善意之下，特別是大陸方面的態度。2019年習近平的談話與香港「反送中」運動、2020年中華民國總統大選等過程，使「九二共識」創造性的模糊空間不再，恐因特定的時空背景與特定的政黨動員狀態下失去作用。在此情況下，中華民國仍是臺灣各界最大的公約數，執政黨應以《中華民國憲法》為基礎，強調堅持中華民國的「一中各表」。

Due to the Chinese Civil War, the both sides of the Taiwan Strait have been politically separated since 1949. Both Taiwan and mainland China have gradually reconciled from confrontation and lift of martial law. Under this context, the “One China” principle continues to remain a core issue of cross-strait relations, and the “1992 Consensus” has contributed to ups and downs in cross-strait relations for nearly 30 years. China’s insistence on the “One China” principle has not relaxed, and it has adhered to the “one China” principle under the “1992 Consensus.” For Taiwan, on the other hand, the “1992 Consensus” has meant “One China, with respective interpretations.” But through democratization and three transfers of political power, Taiwan’s version of the “1992 Consensus” and “One China, with respective interpretations” have become dynamic and involves different historical perspectives and value judgments of the political parties in power. This paper examines the “One China” principle over a 70-year context of “respective interpretations” and is divided into various stages spanning from the Nationalist withdrawal to Taiwan in 1949 to the third transfer of political power in 2016. The analysis covers historical structures and related texts. First, the paper explores the formation and transformation of the “1992 Consensus.” Second, the paper analyzes and examines how international circumstances and cross-strait political and economic restructuring had impact on the “1992 Consensus.” Finally, the paper examines how related stakeholders have interpreted and influenced the “1992 Consensus” through various political stages on both sides of the strait. According to the research, the “1992 Consensus” finds its role only in mutual trust and goodwill across the Taiwan Strait, especially the stance of the Chinese mainland. Remarks by Xi Jinping and the Hong Kong protests in 2019 as well as the Republic of China’s (Taiwan) presidential election in 2020 have eroded the creative ambiguity of the “1992 Consensus,” which may lose its role under specific circumstances and mobilization by political parties. Under this context, the “Republic of China” remains the greatest consensus of Taiwanese society. Using the R.O.C. Constitution as a foundation, Taiwan’s ruling party should stress the Republic of China under its version of “One China, with respective interpretations.”