東協之FTA對貨品貿易流量之影響

Abstract

本文使用引力模型探討東協之FTA對貨品貿易流量產生的影響。主要探討問題有三。第一是各個東協加一FTA是否提升成員國之間的貿易流量。第二是探討東協各國之 FTA對其出口及進口分別有何影響。第三則是了解各個東協加一FTA是否產生貿易轉移的現象，特別是台灣的出口是否因此受到影響。 本文分析2001-2015年間56國的進口資料。估計方法上，使用泊松擬最大概似估計式(Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator, PPML)處理誤差異質變異導致的問題，並分別利用國家-年固定效果(country-year fixed effect)及國家配對固定效果(country-pair fixed effect)控制多邊阻力項(Multilateral Resistance Term, MRT)及內生性。 實證結果顯示在各個東協加一FTA中，東協-中國FTA及東協-韓國FTA提升了成員國間的貿易流量，而東協-日本FTA、東協-印度FTA及東協-紐澳FTA則無明顯效果。優惠差額大小、各FTA生效年早晚、其他雙邊FTA之多寡等因素都可能是影響FTA成效的原因。其次，東協國家的各FTA對於東協之出口及進口都有提升，其中對出口的提升更大。最後，各東協加一FTA似乎尚未對台灣產生明顯的貿易轉移。

In this paper, I study the impact of ASEAN’s free trade agreements on trade flows. There are three main questions I want to study: (1) Do ASEAN+1 FTAs enhance trade flows between FTA members? (2) What are the impacts of ASEAN countries’ FTAs on ASEAN countries’ exports and imports? (3) Do ASEAN+1 FTAs cause trade diversion effects? This paper is based on 56 countries’ import data during 2001-2015. I use Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator (PPML) to deal with problems caused by heteroscedasticity, use country-year fixed effect to control Multilateral Resistance Term (MRT), and use country-pair fixed effect to deal with endogeneity. Empirical results show that among ASEAN+1 FTAs, ASEAN-China FTA and ASEAN-Korea FTA enhance trade flows between FTA members, but it seems that ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership, ASEAN-India FTA and ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand FTA have no apparent effects on trade flows. Difference in margin of preference, year that ASEAN+1 FTA entered into force, and number of ASEAN FTA partner’s bilateral FTAs with ASEAN countries appear to affect the effectiveness of ASEAN+1 FTAs. Then, ASEAN countries’ FTAs enhance both ASEAN countries’ exports and imports, and impacts on exports are stronger. Lastly, it seems that ASEAN+1 FTAs have no apparent trade diversion effects on Taiwan.