氣候變遷對馬鈴薯生產之風險評估與策略分析：以DSSAT模擬在緬甸之應用為例

Abstract

Climate change has negative impacts on crop production, hence it is essential to understand the potential impacts of it and the efficacy of adaptation strategies on future potato yields. This study was conducted to simulate the impacts of climate change on future potato yields, design adaptation strategies, and evaluate their effects on tuber yields. Utilizing daily weather data generated by LARS.WG in combination with the SUBSTOR-Potato crop model from the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software, we simulated projected potato yields for the rainfed monsoon cropping season under three distinct climate change scenarios (ssps 126, 245, and 585) for the years 2025 to 2087 in Naungtayar Township, Southern Shan State, Myanmar. Climate analysis indicated that the high-emission scenario is associated with more extreme climate conditions, characterized by elevated temperatures and increased variability in precipitation. The results showed that the SUBSTOR-Potato model exhibited robust performance throughout the calibration and validation phases. The simulated results indicated that among the various emission scenarios, the lowest potato yield was anticipated under the ssp585 scenario, followed by ssp245 and ssp126, with yield discrepancies between ssp126 and ssp585 approximating 8 to 9 t/ha, which indicates a reduction of about 25%. Further analysis of adaptation strategies revealed that delayed planting dates could enhance potato yield, whereas yields declined when planting occurred earlier than optimal. Notably, extending the crop life cycle by adjusting the harvest timing allowed early-planted potatoes to achieve yields comparable to the normal planting date. Moreover, our findings indicated that increasing fertilizer application may not serve as an effective strategy for yield improvement under climate change in this region. The selection of appropriate cultivars is vital, given that heat-resistant cultivars did not yield favorable results under the lower emission scenarios. It is essential to note that these findings were derived from a single growing season during the calibration period; thus, they should be interpreted with caution.

Climate change has negative impacts on crop production, hence it is essential to understand the potential impacts of it and the efficacy of adaptation strategies on future potato yields. This study was conducted to simulate the impacts of climate change on future potato yields, design adaptation strategies, and evaluate their effects on tuber yields. Utilizing daily weather data generated by LARS.WG in combination with the SUBSTOR-Potato crop model from the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software, we simulated projected potato yields for the rainfed monsoon cropping season under three distinct climate change scenarios (ssps 126, 245, and 585) for the years 2025 to 2087 in Naungtayar Township, Southern Shan State, Myanmar. Climate analysis indicated that the high-emission scenario is associated with more extreme climate conditions, characterized by elevated temperatures and increased variability in precipitation. The results showed that the SUBSTOR-Potato model exhibited robust performance throughout the calibration and validation phases. The simulated results indicated that among the various emission scenarios, the lowest potato yield was anticipated under the ssp585 scenario, followed by ssp245 and ssp126, with yield discrepancies between ssp126 and ssp585 approximating 8 to 9 t/ha, which indicates a reduction of about 25%. Further analysis of adaptation strategies revealed that delayed planting dates could enhance potato yield, whereas yields declined when planting occurred earlier than optimal. Notably, extending the crop life cycle by adjusting the harvest timing allowed early-planted potatoes to achieve yields comparable to the normal planting date. Moreover, our findings indicated that increasing fertilizer application may not serve as an effective strategy for yield improvement under climate change in this region. The selection of appropriate cultivars is vital, given that heat-resistant cultivars did not yield favorable results under the lower emission scenarios. It is essential to note that these findings were derived from a single growing season during the calibration period; thus, they should be interpreted with caution.