分析綠地對巴爾的摩市財產犯罪率的影響

Abstract

本論文檢視了2011年至2021年巴爾的摩市綠地與財產犯罪之間的關係，特別關注綠地維護和社區收入水準如何影響這種關係。研究借鑒了環境設計預防犯罪、破窗效應和隱瞞假說等理論，探究維護綠地是否真的有助於減少犯罪，以及這種效果在富裕社區和低收入社區是否有所不同。該研究使用來自55個社區統計區域的面板數據，建立了固定效應回歸模型，檢驗了維護和未維護的綠地與財產犯罪隨時間的變化關係。維護良好的綠地通常與較低的犯罪率相關，但在大多數模型中，這種關係並不具有統計顯著性。收入是降低財產犯罪率更顯著且更一致的預測因子。我們使用了交互項來檢驗收入是否會增強綠地的影響，但數據並未明確支持這一觀點。視覺化地圖顯示，雖然自2011年以來，全市綠地維護規模已擴大，但成長幅度並不均衡。有些地區的維護活動大幅增加，而其他地區則基本保持不變。這些模式表明，獲得綠地改善的機會仍取決於居住地。研究結果揭示了一個比理論本身更複雜的圖像。綠地固然有價值，但它並非孤立運作。在一個長期不平等的城市中，如果沒有更廣泛的結構性支持，綠化工作的角色就會受到限制。

This thesis examines the relationship between green space and property crime in Baltimore City between 2011 and 2021, with special attention to how green space maintenance and neighborhood income levels may shape that relationship. Drawing from theories like Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design, Broken Windows, and the Concealment Hypothesis, the research asks whether keeping green spaces maintained actually helps reduce crime, and whether that effect looks different in wealthier versus lower-income communities. Using fixed-effects regression models on panel data from 55 Community Statistical Areas, the study tests how maintained and unmaintained green spaces relate to property crime over time. Maintained green space was generally linked with lower crime, but this relationship was not statistically significant in most models. Income stood out as a stronger and more consistent predictor of lower property crime. An interaction term was used to see if income made the effects of green space stronger, but the data did not clearly support that idea. Visual maps show that while green space maintenance has expanded across the city since 2011, the growth has not been equal. Some areas saw major increases in maintenance activity, while others remained largely untouched. These patterns suggest that access to green space improvements still depends on where someone lives. The results point to a more complicated picture than what theory alone suggests. Green space has value, but it does not operate in isolation. In a city shaped by long-standing inequalities, the role of greening efforts is limited without broader structural support.