我國非核政策之研究 -兼論日本、德國之非核政策及制度

Abstract

2011年日本福島核災後，台灣對於核能的安全疑慮遽然提升，政府也隨之調整能源政策。2016年蔡英文政府執政後，提出「2025非核家園計畫」，主張在2025年前全面停用核電，並以再生能源及天然氣發電取代核能發電，效法日本及德國停止使用核能發電的相關作法。 然而，核能發電原本佔我國總發電量約14%，政府規劃在核電退場後，提升再生能源與天然氣發電的比重來補足電力缺口，卻忽略能源結構的調整與轉型並非僅止於核能發電退場，還涉及電力供應穩定性、環境影響及經濟成本等多重考量。 2021年4月22日，蔡前總統亦於世界地球日宣示2050淨零轉型亦為台灣政策目標。至此，台灣非核政策亦須考量減碳目標，以維護能源安全、經濟發展與環境永續之間的有機平衡。 本研究先回顧我國非核政策法規基礎及架構，包含電業法、環境基本法等，並解析「2025非核家園計畫」的影響，再依據2050淨零碳排計畫的目標，考量台灣能源結構的規劃，最後透過研究我國之非核政策歷年來的發展，並將日本、德國與我國非核政策發展情況進行比對，建議我國未來非核政策短期與長期策略之發展方向。

The Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011 significantly heightened public concern regarding nuclear safety in Taiwan, thereby prompting a major shift in national energy policy. In response, following the inauguration of President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016, the Taiwanese government announced the "2025 Nuclear-Free Homeland Plan," which seeks to achieve a complete cessation of nuclear power generation by 2025. The plan advocates for replacing nuclear energy with renewable energy sources and natural gas, drawing upon the precedents set by Japan and Germany in their respective nuclear phase-out strategies. Nevertheless, given that nuclear power previously contributed approximately 14% of Taiwan’s total electricity generation, the government's approach to compensating for this gap primarily through the expansion of renewable energy and natural gas capacity fails to fully account for the multifaceted challenges of energy transition. A genuine restructuring of the energy system entails more than merely retiring nuclear facilities; it also necessitates careful consideration of power supply stability, environmental impacts, and economic costs. Furthermore, on April 22, 2021, President Tsai reiterated Taiwan’s policy commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, aligning the nation’s energy and environmental strategies with global trends. This development further underscores the need for Taiwan's non-nuclear policy to be harmonized with carbon reduction objectives while ensuring a sustainable balance among energy security, economic growth, and environmental stewardship.

This study first reviews the legal foundations and regulatory frameworks underpinning Taiwan's non-nuclear policy, including the Electricity Act and the Basic Environment Act. It then provides an in-depth analysis of the implications of the "2025 Nuclear-Free Homeland Plan" and assesses the strategic planning of Taiwan’s energy structure within the context of the 2050 Net-Zero Carbon Emissions Roadmap. Finally, through a comparative study of the evolution of non-nuclear policies in Taiwan, Japan, and Germany, this research offers strategic recommendations for the short-term and long-term development of Taiwan’s non-nuclear policy in pursuit of a resilient, low-carbon future.