去美元化趨勢下的貨幣權力重構：人民幣成為主導國際貨幣的可能性

Abstract

在全球地緣政治格局與經濟結構重塑的背景下，美元長期以來的主導國際貨幣地位面臨日益顯著的挑戰。美國持續性的財政失衡、貨幣政策所引發的全球外溢效應，以及金融制裁工具的頻繁運用，促使多國重新評估對美元的依賴，進而推動去美元化作為強化金融主權與分散風險的戰略選項。本研究旨在探討此貨幣權力重構趨勢中，人民幣作為潛在挑戰者的制度性條件及其發展前景。 為建立分析框架，本研究首先回顧歷史上荷蘭盾、英鎊與美元等歷史主導貨幣的演進脈絡，歸納出國際貨幣地位的四項核心條件，經濟與貿易規模、金融市場開放程度、貨幣價值穩定性與網絡外部性。其後，運用貨幣三大功能，實證分析美元當前在交易媒介、計價單位與價值儲藏地位的結構性變化。進一步，本文從地緣政治與經濟視角，剖析去美元化趨勢之驅動因素，並以金磚國家為案例，考察其作為集體行動者在制度建構與推動本幣結算方面的具體實踐。最終，系統性評估人民幣當前國際地位與上述四項國際貨幣發展條件，進而分析人民幣國際化的優勢與劣勢。 研究結果顯示，儘管中國的經濟與貿易實力為人民幣國際化奠定了堅實基礎，然而其受限制的資本帳戶開放程度與非市場化的匯率管理機制，構成了人民幣挑戰美元地位最根本的結構性障礙。本研究的結論是，人民幣雖具備成為主要國際貨幣的潛力，但在中短期內尚難以撼動美元的中心地位。展望未來，國際貨幣體系並非走向單一貨幣的直接替代，而更可能演變為一個由美元、歐元與人民幣等多個貨幣並存的多極化貨幣格局。本研究有助於深化對當前國際貨幣體系變局的理解，並為全球金融治理的未來發展提供理論與實證依據。

Amidst the reshaping of the global geopolitical landscape and economic structure, the long-standing dominance of the U.S. dollar as the premier international currency is facing increasingly significant challenges. Persistent fiscal imbalances in the UnitedStates, coupled with the global spillover effects of its monetary policy and the frequent use of financial sanctions as a tool of statecraft, have prompted numerous nations to reassess their dependence on the dollar. This has led to the advancement of de-dollarization as a strategic option to strengthen financial sovereignty and diversify risk. This study aims to investigate the institutional conditions and developmental prospects for the Chinese Renminbi (RMB) as a potential challenger in this trend of restructuring monetary power. To establish an analytical framework, this research first reviews the historical evolution of dominant international currencies, including the Dutch guilder, the British pound sterling, and the U.S. dollar, identifying four core conditions for achieving international currency status: economic and trade scale, the degree of financial market openness, stability of the currency's value, and network externalities. Subsequently, employing the three primary functions of money, the study empirically analyzes the current structural changes in the U.S. dollar's status as a medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value. Furthermore, from both geopolitical and economic perspectives, this paper dissects the driving factors behind the de-dollarization trend, using the BRICS nations as a case study to examine their concrete practices as collective actors in building institutions and promoting settlements in local currencies. Finally, the study systematically evaluates the current international standing of the RMB against the four aforementioned conditions for an international currency, thereby analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of its internationalization. The findings indicate that while China's economic and trade strength provides a solid foundation for the RMB's internationalization, its restricted capital account convertibility and non-market-based exchange rate management mechanism constitute the most fundamental structural obstacles to the RMB's ability to challenge the U.S. dollar's preeminence. This study concludes that although the RMB possesses the potential to become a major international currency, it is unlikely to undermine the central position of the dollar in the short to medium term. Looking ahead, the international monetary system is not heading towards a direct substitution of one single currency for another, but is more likely to evolve into a multipolar monetary landscape where the U.S. dollar, the Euro, and the RMB coexist. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the ongoing shifts in the international monetary system and provides a theoretical and empirical basis for the future development of global financial governance.