TPASS月票政策對大臺北都會區公車搭乘實證研究

Abstract

本研究評估2023年7月起實施之TPASS（行政院通勤月票）政策對大臺北都會區市區公車搭乘行為之影響。研究整合智慧卡交易紀錄、氣象、地理與社經等資料，並以上下車站牌組合與每小時資料建構面板資料，進行固定效果迴歸分析。樣本涵蓋2023年4月至12月的幹線公車與山區小型公車，關注政策前後月票使用比例、總搭乘量與（非）月票乘車人次之變化，並進一步探討政策效果如何受天氣條件、站牌周邊人口結構與工商密度之調節。 分析結果顯示，TPASS政策實施後，月票使用人次顯著上升，非月票乘客人次整體下降。月票使用者對天氣條件呈現高度敏感：遇天氣不佳時，其搭乘人次皆明顯減少，唯強風下搭乘增加。相較之下，在惡劣天氣中反而出現更多非月票搭乘數，顯示不同乘客群對天氣的反應模式存在差異。在社經因素方面，幹線公車行經中高收入區域者搭乘量下降，山區小型公車則出現相反趨勢。 進一步依搭乘距離分組之政策效果分析顯示，短程距離之月票使用人次增加幅度顯著高於長程組別，顯示月票零邊際成本的特性可能誘發短程搭乘需求上升，恐不利於原政策鼓勵長距通勤轉乘、降低碳排的初衷。

This study evaluates the impact of the TPASS (Executive Yuan Commuter Pass) policy, implemented in July 2023, on urban bus ridership behavior in the Greater Taipei Metropolitan Area. By integrating smart card transaction records with weather, geographic, and socioeconomic data, we construct a panel dataset at the level of boarding–alighting stop pairs on a hourly basis and apply fixed effects regression models. The analysis covers data from April to December 2023 for both metro bus routes and mountain shuttle buses. We focus on changes in monthly pass usage share, total ridership, and disaggregated (non-)pass user ridership before and after the policy, while further examining how policy effects are moderated by weather conditions, population structure, and commercial density around bus stops. The results show a significant increase in monthly pass ridership following the policy implementation, while non-pass ridership generally declined. Pass users exhibit heightened sensitivity to weather conditions: their ridership tends to decrease under adverse weather—such as extreme temperatures, humidity deviations, and rainfall—except under strong wind, which is associated with increased usage. In contrast, non-pass users appear to ride more during unfavorable weather, suggesting distinct behavioral responses across rider types. Regarding socioeconomic factors, ridership on metro bus routes declined in areas with higher median income, whereas the opposite trend is observed for mountain shuttle bus routes. Further analysis by trip distance suggests that the increase in pass usage is more pronounced for short-distance trips than for longer ones. This may be related to the zero marginal cost feature of the monthly pass, which could incentivize additional short-distance travel. Whether this undermines the policy's original goals of encouraging long-distance modal shift and reducing carbon emissions remains an open question requiring further investigation.