台北市人行道改善政策對交通事故與傷亡之影響

Abstract

本研究將運用差異中之差異法探究2024年起「永續提升人行安全計畫」中「易肇事路口改善計畫」在台北市的政策成效，藉由分析2023年到2024年車禍資料了解政策是否改善事故發生機率。研究結果發現完工後事故數、事故參與者數、傷亡數皆呈現正向但不顯著的結果，顯示該政策並未實質改善肇事機率。研究也針對各子群體進行分析，發現該計畫在夜間有相較日間更好的效果；對女性駕駛有相較男性駕駛更好的效果。除此之外，該計畫有稍微減少行人的遭遇的交通事故，但汽車及機車駕駛的交通事故呈現略微增加。中介效應分析顯示，避難島、安全設施、行人穿越道後退、行人信號時相改善以及標線和信號的增設或改善顯著減少事故和傷亡數量。然而，需注意的是，交叉口行人穿越道的改善與事故和傷亡的增加有關。

This study employs the difference-in-differences method to investigate the policy effectiveness of the "High-Risk Intersections Improvement Program" under the "Sustainable Pedestrian Safety Enhancement Program" in Taipei City starting in 2024. By analyzing traffic accident data from 2023 to 2024, the study examines whether the policy reduces the likelihood of accidents. The results show that post-implementation, the number of accidents, the number of participants, and the number of casualties all exhibit a positive but statistically insignificant effect, indicating that the policy has not substantially reduced the probability of accidents. Subgroup analysis reveals that the plan is more effective at night compared to daytime and has a greater impact on female drivers compared to male drivers. Additionally, the plan slightly reduces traffic accidents involving pedestrians, but accidents involving car and motorcycle drivers present a slight increase. The mediation effect analysis showed that features such as refuge islands, safety facilities, crosswalk setbacks, pedestrian signal phase improvements, and the addition or enhancement of markings and signals significantly reduce the number of accidents and casualties. However, it is important to note that crosswalk improvements at intersections are associated with an increase in accidents and injuries.