土地掠奪者或守衛者？綠能政策對農地買賣市場及農地利用的潛在影響

Abstract

本研究關切淨零轉型進程下的能源蔓延(Energy Sprawl)現象及其引發的綠色衝突(Conflicts of Greens)議題；選擇從農地買賣市場的中介角色，探討再生能源發展對土地利用的影響。有別於既有質性文獻僅調查租賃關係下的農地轉用，或者實證研究集中探討綠能開發對房地產價格的影響；本文主張尚須觀察農地買賣流動性的變化，綜觀市場價量動態，才能充分理解土地轉用活動，並預測其趨勢。為此，本文以搜索–媒合模型為基礎，融入競租理論和實質選擇權理論的啟示，提出一套新穎的交易–轉用模型。 為了實證高壓饋線周遭的農地市場會對綠能發展作何反應，本文聚焦台灣2018至2020年間的「循線找地」政策，以雙重差分法(Difference-in-Differences, DiD)進行分析。結果呈現高度的地區異質性：都市農地因鄰避效應而價量齊跌；鄉村農地的反應則取決於它們與饋線的距離：1公里內因為土地投機式微、轉向長期投資電廠，反映為價量齊跌；1-2公里處則因地主惜售而價漲量跌。 這些結果揭示綠能發展具有「循線找地」和「以電逐建」的特性，為國土成長管理(Growth Management)帶來啟示。本文建議可透過綠能專區規劃，引導再生能源遠離重要農業區或保育區，並進駐郊區農地：無論是對市場引發惜售或鄰避效應，減緩農地交易及轉用的頻率；或是讓農地蓋上太陽光電廠，保有復原土地的可能性；兩情境在面對城鎮開發壓力下，相對有機會留下較完整的土地，以留待未來的不時之需；同時在當下生產綠電、落實淨零轉型路徑(Net-Zero Pathway)的指導。這或許是一項具可行性，且兼顧國土永續利用的政策提案。最後在學術貢獻方面，本文提出一套分析框架，自土地買賣市場探討土地轉用活動，呈現能源基礎設施與土地市場之間複雜的交互作用，增進了學界對時下能源轉型議題的理解。

This study examines “energy sprawl” and the resulting “conflicts of greens” during the net-zero transition, focusing on the impact of green energy development on land-use through farmland sales. Unlike existing ethnographic investigations of land-use changes (LUC) under farmland leasing or empirical literature that mostly assesses renewable energy’s impact on real estate prices, this paper emphasizes the necessity of analyzing both price and liquidity shifts to comprehend land-use conversion. To conceptualize these dynamics, the article proposes a novel “transaction-conversion framework” derived from a search-matching model and incorporating insights from bid-rent and real option theories. Employing a difference-in-differences (DiD) methodology, the study evaluates Taiwan's "Tracing the Line (循線找地)" policy (2018-2020) to explore how farmland sales markets surrounding transmission lines respond to emerging green energy development opportunities. Empirical findings reveal regional sub-market heterogeneity. Urban farmlands display declines in both price and liquidity due to Not-In-My-Backyard (NIMBY) effects, while rural farmlands demonstrate varied responses depending on grid proximity. Within 1 km of transmission lines, prices and liquidity decrease as market shifts from speculative transfers to long-term solar farm investments. At 1-2 km distances, rising prices coupled with falling liquidity reflect strategic holdout behaviors among landowners anticipating higher future valuations. These insights suggest that renewable energy development is both "grid-following" and "development-deterring," with implications for growth management. Strategic placement of green energy zones and corridors can guide power projects away from critical agriculture and conservation areas toward suburban farmlands facing development pressure. Moreover, the reversibility of solar PV installations, cooperating with landowners’ reluctance to sell and NIMBY-driven hedging behaviors, offers opportunities to reserve lands for future adaptive needs and align the Net-Zero pathway with sustainable land-use management. This study contributes to understanding the complex interplay between energy infrastructure and land market by proposing a novel analytical framework for examining land-use conversions in the context of energy transitions.