臺灣菸酒市場之需求分析

Abstract

菸酒問題一直在各領域都被廣泛討論，其原因為吸菸和喝酒除了對吸菸者或酗酒者損害自身健康外，使用者往往低估了菸酒的依賴性問題，以及其對社會帶來的潛在隱憂。本研究為想瞭解菸酒稅收是否能有效減少國產及進口菸酒消費量，故使用 Centre Bureau of Statistics（CBS）需求模型來進行實證分析。資料研究期間為2003年至2022年之年資料，以國產菸、進口菸、國產酒及進口酒，四種品項為主要研究對象，計算出補償價格彈性、未補償價格彈性與支出彈性以幫助驗證結果。四種品相之支出彈性都爲正數，其中進口菸彈性最大。補償價格彈性中，除了國產菸補償價格彈性為正數，進口菸、國產酒及進口酒之補償價格彈性都爲負數。未補償價格彈性中，所有結果都爲負數，其中進口菸的彈性最大。整體而言，菸酒稅制對於控管菸酒消費量是有效的政策。

The issue of tobacco and alcohol consumption has been widely discussed across various fields due to its significant implications for public health. In addition to the harm it causes to smokers and heavy drinkers themselves, users often underestimate the addictive nature of tobacco and alcohol as well as their potential societal risks. This study aims to examine whether tobacco and alcohol taxation can effectively reduce the consumption of both domestic and imported products. To this end, the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) demand model is employed for empirical analysis. The study covers annual data from 2003 to 2022, focusing on four product categories: domestic cigarettes, imported cigarettes, domestic alcohol, and imported alcohol. The analysis involves calculating uncompensated price elasticity, compensated price elasticity and expenditure elasticity to validate the results. All four products exhibit positive expenditure elasticities, with imported cigarettes showing the highest elasticity. For compensated price elasticity, only domestic cigarettes present a positive value, while the other three categories show negative values. In terms of uncompensated price elasticity, all estimates are negative, with imported cigarettes again having the largest elasticity. Overall, the findings suggest that tobacco and alcohol taxation is an effective policy tool for regulating consumption of tobacco and alcohol.