環境系統面對洪水災害衝擊之韌性評估

Abstract

在全球氣候變遷和城市化加速的背景下，極端降雨和洪水災害的頻率和強度不斷增加，對自然和人類系統構成了重大威脅。本研究旨在建構洪水災害韌性指數 (Flood Resilience Index, FRI)，以不同的觀點來量化和評估研究區域在面對洪水災害的韌性。 目前大部分評估韌性的文獻都是從人類視角來看，所考量的因子大多集中在社會及經濟方面。本研究納入環境觀點來評估韌性，採用 ISO 14090 氣候變遷風險評估框架，將危害度、暴露度和敏感度作為三個關鍵的韌性子指標。透過 3Di 水動力學模型模擬暴雨事件造成的洪水災害，並根據研究區域的洪水物理特性推導出危害度指標。此外，本研究使用 Conefor Sensinode 2.2 計算棲地連通機率(Probability of Connectivity, PC)來評估棲地連續性，並將其作為暴露度指標中的因子之一，結合生物多樣性、土壤排水等級、生物密度等環境因子來評估臺中市西屯區內各個研究單元的環境韌性表現，從而建立了不同觀點的FRI。 研究結果顯示，環境因子敏感度普遍大於社會經濟因子，在高危害度的地區尤為明顯。環境韌性的耦合協調度(CCD)與僅加入社會因子的韌性指標耦合度大部分大於0.6，顯示出良好的協同性，當耦合較差時，可以進一步使用互相關函數(CCF)來量化FRI與不同子指標間的相互作用，找出主導FRI的指標，進而提供不同地區的防災策略，也突顯了多元觀點評估的重要性。本研究引入環境觀點的FRI框架，納入棲地連續性等新的韌性因子，並為決策者提供了識別關鍵主導因子的分析方法，有助於制定更精確的洪水易發地區適應性管理策略。

In the context of global climate change and accelerating urbanization, the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall and flooding events are continuously increasing, posing significant threats to both natural and human systems. This study aims to develop a Flood Resilience Index (FRI) to quantify and assess regional resilience to flood disasters from different perspectives. Most existing resilience assessment literature adopts a human-centered viewpoint, with factors primarily focused on social and economic aspects. This study incorporates an environmental perspective for resilience assessment, adopting the ISO 14090 climate change risk assessment framework and establishing hazard, exposure, and sensitivity as three key resilience sub-indicators. The 3Di hydrodynamic model is employed to simulate flooding events caused by extreme rainfall, and hazard indicators are derived based on the physical flood characteristics of the study area. Additionally, this study uses Conefor Sensinode 2.2 to calculate the Probability of Connectivity (PC) for assessing habitat connectivity, incorporating it as one of the factors in the exposure indicator. By integrating environmental factors such as biodiversity, soil drainage levels, and biological density, the environmental resilience performance of various research units in Xitun District, Taichung City is evaluated, thereby establishing FRI from different perspectives. Results indicate that the sensitivity of environmental factors is generally greater than that of social-economic factors, particularly pronounced in high-hazard areas. The Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) between environmental resilience and social-economic resilience mostly exceeds 0.6, demonstrating good synergy. When coupling is poor, Cross-Correlation Functions (CCF) can be further employed to quantify interactions between FRI and different sub-indicators, identifying dominant factors and thereby providing location-specific disaster prevention strategies. These findings highlight the importance of multi-perspective assessment. This study introduces an environmental perspective FRI framework, incorporates new resilience factors such as habitat connectivity, and provides decision-makers with analytical methods for identifying key dominant factors, contributing to the development of more precise adaptive management strategies for flood-prone areas.