毛豬拍賣價格的影響因子：以C養豬場為例

Abstract

本研究以雲林縣 C 養豬場為研究對象，運用 C 養豬場 2024 年度毛豬拍賣所提供之供應頭數、重量、平均重量、平均單價、氣溫、農曆新年、端午節、中秋節、週六與財務資料，探討養豬產業毛豬拍賣價格的影響因素為何。研究期間為 2024 年元月至 2024 年 12 月，毛豬拍賣樣本數 2246 筆，透過迴歸分析建構三個實證模型，分析毛豬拍賣價格的影響因子。 實證結果顯示，毛豬重量與拍賣價格呈顯著正相關，顯示重量較重、毛豬母的毛豬更有較大獲利空間；而重量則與三大節慶農曆新年、端午節、中秋節呈負向關係，代表三大節慶毛豬拍賣價格可能因政府平抑物價管理導致毛豬拍賣價相對保守。養豬場方面，若大養豬場或財團養豬場在節慶時大量出售重量較輕的毛豬，導致市場供給過多時會直接影響毛豬拍賣價格較低；相對地，供給市場的毛豬如果減少，則與毛豬拍賣價格呈現正向關係，顯示養豬場跟大養豬場的毛豬市場供給頭數多寡與重量可能反應於毛豬拍賣價的高低。 本研究結果建議養豬場應強化管理養豬場結構，並提升科學化營養效率增加毛豬瘦肉比例減少肥肉脂肪，以期在肉品市場拍賣價格更高。養豬場的母豬群管理為火車頭、是重中之重，保育豬跟肥育豬應善用現代科技力積極參與養豬場循環經濟，政策層面提升養豬資訊、技術與制度設計，以期促進養豬產業整體永續循環經濟發展。

This study investigates the factors influencing auction prices of live hogs using empirical data collected from Farm C, a commercial hog farm located in Yunlin County, Taiwan. The analysis is based on transaction-level data from the farm’s participation in the 2024 live hog auction market, encompassing a total of 2,246 observations. The dataset includes variables such as number of hogs supplied, individual weight, average lot weight, average unit price, temperature, and indicators for key holidays (Lunar New Year, Dragon Boat Festival, Mid-Autumn Festival) and Saturdays. Employing multiple regression analysis, this study examines the determinats of hog auction prices. The empirical findings reveal a statistically significant and positive relationship between hog weight and auction price, indicating that heavier animals—particularly sows—tend to yield higher profitability. However, auction prices tend to decline around major holidays, likely due to government interventions aimed at price stabilization. Additionally, if large-scale farms or corporate producers release lighter hogs into the market in large quantities during festive periods, the resulting oversupply may suppress auction prices. Conversely, reduced supply in the market is associated with higher auction prices, suggesting that both supply volume and hog weight significantly affect price outcomes. Based on these findings, it is recommended that hog farms strengthen internal management structures and adopt scientifically informed nutritional strategies to enhance lean meat yield and reduce fat content, thereby increasing market value. Effective management of sow herds remains central to production performance, while the integration of nursery and finishing pigs into a circular farming system through modern technologies is essential. From a policy perspective, the promotion of transparent information systems, technological advancement, and institutional reforms is vital to ensuring the sustainable development of Taiwan’s hog industry within a circular.