中國國際影響力：買家效果與賣家效果 (2001–2023)

Abstract

本研究探討中國在國際貿易中作為買方和賣方的不同角色如何影響其改變他國外交政策的能力，儘管現有研究已證明貿易依賴可以促進各國與中國的外交政策一致性，但中國貿易影響力的作用機制仍缺乏充分的理論解釋。本研究基於Hirschman的貿易權力理論，將中國的貿易力量區分為買方效應（進口依賴）和賣方效應（出口依賴），本研究透過分析從2001至2023年間151個國家的時間序列橫截面資料（TSCS），發現中國貿易力量的不對稱效果：出口依賴有助於增加外交政策一致性而進口依賴則無顯著影響，此現象源自於中國作為市場的不可取代性與中國出口商品的可取代性，除此之外，本研究顯示區域是調節貿易依賴與外交政策一致性關係的重要因素，貿易依賴在不同區域所產生的結果呈現出顯著差異，本研究接著採用巴拿馬和泰國作為案例研究，進一步說明不同類型的貿易依賴如何形塑外交立場。本研究推進了國際關係理論，顯示市場與商品產生不一致的政治影響力，挑戰了關於經濟相互依賴的傳統觀點，本研究也為各國如何制定經濟國策以應對中國日益增長的經濟影響力提供了政策啟示。

This thesis examines how China's distinct roles as a buyer and seller in international trade shape its ability to influence other states' foreign policies. While existing research has demonstrated that trade dependence can increase foreign policy convergence with China, the mechanisms of China's trade influence have yet to be adequately theorized. Drawing on Hirschman's theory of trade power, I conceptualize China's trade power as buyer effects (import dependence) and seller effects (export dependence). Using time-series cross-sectional data on 151 states from 2001 to 2023, this thesis finds an asymmetric effect of China's trade power: export dependence increases foreign policy convergence, while import dependence shows no significant effect. This phenomenon stems from the irreplaceability of China as a market and the substitutability of China's exports. In addition, the thesis suggests that regional context emerges as a crucial factor in the effects of trade dependence on foreign policy convergence. Trade dependence produces markedly different outcomes across regions. This thesis employs single case studies of Panama and Thailand to further reveal the causal mechanisms through which different types of trade dependence shape diplomatic positions. The findings advance international relations theory by showing that market and merchandise generate inconsistent political leverage, challenging conventional wisdom about economic interdependence. The thesis also offers policy implications for how states can develop statecraft in response to China's growing economic influence.