含藥物飼料添加物使用規範修正對毛豬價格的影響

Abstract

在全球對抗生素抗藥性問題日益關注的背景下，我國政府自 2024 年 1 月 1 日起施行「含藥物飼料添加物使用規範」修正，逐步限縮甚至禁用含藥物飼料添加物，此舉雖有助於食品安全及減緩抗藥性問題，但也可能對養豬產業的生產成本與管理帶來挑戰。本研究利用政策實施前後共 36 個月（2022 年 1 月至 2024 年 12 月）資料，採用多元迴歸分析方法，將政策變數設定為虛擬變數，並納入配合飼料價格滯後期、溫度加權滯後期、進口冷凍豬肉量以及有色肉雞屠檢量滯後期等控制變數，以評估政策變革對毛豬價格的影響。 實證結果顯示，含藥物飼料添加物使用規範修正後，臺灣毛豬價格呈現顯著上升的趨勢。具體而言，在控制其他條件的情形下，「進口冷凍豬肉量」每增加 1,000 公噸，毛豬價格約上升 0.49 元。此外，政策施行約第五個月開在全球對抗生素抗藥性問題日益關注的背景下，我國政府自 2024 年 1 月 1 日起施行「含藥物飼料添加物使用規範」修正，逐步限縮甚至禁用含藥物飼料添加物，此舉雖有助於食品安全及減緩抗藥性問題，但也可能對養豬產業的生產成本與管理帶來挑戰。本研究利用政策實施前後共 36 個月（2022 年 1 月至 2024 年 12 月）資料，採用多元迴歸分析方法，將政策變數設定為虛擬變數，並納入配合飼料價格滯後期、溫度加權滯後期、進口冷凍豬肉量以及有色肉雞屠檢量滯後期等控制變數，以評估政策變革對毛豬價格的影響。 實證結果顯示，含藥物飼料添加物使用規範修正後，臺灣毛豬價格呈現顯著上升的趨勢。具體而言，在控制其他條件的情形下，「進口冷凍豬肉量」每增加 1,000 公噸，毛豬價格約上升 0.49 元。此外，政策施行約第五個月開始，毛豬價格平均上升 4.23 元，滯後九期的「配合飼料價格」對毛豬價格有正向影響，每上升 1 元，毛豬價格平均增加 3.27 元；滯後三期的「溫度加權」，每升高 1°C，毛豬價格約增加 0.39 元；滯後九期的「有色肉雞屠檢量」也對毛豬價格產生正向影響，每增加 1,000 千隻，毛豬價格約上升 1.35 元。 證實發現，含藥物飼料添加物使用規範的修正確實對臺灣毛豬價格產生正向影響，這可能源於短期內養殖業者因無法使用藥物添加劑而導致生產效率下降。根據實證發現，本研究對養豬業者提出多項建議，包括建立更精細的養殖管理、推動智慧養豬技術以提高存活率與轉換效率、善用市場資訊靈活調整生產規模、重視動物福利與創造產品差異性，以及建議政府鼓勵使用高效飼料配方並建立進口預警機制，以減緩政策變革對產業的衝擊，促進臺灣養豬產業的永續發展。

Taiwanese government implemented revised regulations on the use of medicated feed additives starting January 1, 2024. These new restrictions, aimed at enhancing food safety and mitigating antimicrobial resistance, may also pose challenges for the pig farming industry in terms of increased production costs and management complexity. This study utilizes a multiple regression analysis to data from January 2022 to December 2024. The policy change is modeled as a dummy variable, while lagged variables such as feed price, temperature, imports of frozen pork, and red-feather chicken slaughter volume are included as control variables to evaluate the impact of the policy change on hog prices. Empirical results show that after the revision of medicated feed additive regulations, hog prices exhibited a significant upward trend. Specifically, controlling for other factors, a 1 NT dollar increase in feed price is associated with a decrease of approximately 3.27 NT dollars in hog prices. Conversely. Moreover, the lagged temperature variable shows a positive effect, with each 1°C increase leading to an approximate 0.39 NT dollar rise in hog prices. The lagged quantity of imported frozen pork also positively affects hog prices, with every additional 1,000 metric tons linked to a 0.49 NT dollar increase. An increase of 1,000 thousand slaughtered red-feather chickens (lagged 9 periods) corresponds to a NT$1.35 increase in hog prices. The findings confirm that the regulatory change on medicated feed additives has had a positive impact on live hog prices in Taiwan, likely due to decreased production efficiency among farmers in the short term. Based on these results, this study offers several recommendations to pig farmers, including implementing more precise farm management practices, promoting smart pig farming technologies to improve survival and feed conversion rates, leveraging market information for flexible production adjustments, emphasizing animal welfare and product differentiation, and urging government support for efficient feed formulation and an import early-warning system. These measures aim to mitigate the impact of regulatory changes and support the sustainable development of Taiwan's pig farming industry.