企業創新與公司違約風險：不同因子調節效果

Abstract

本研究探討企業創新對公司違約風險的影響，並分析過度自信 CEO 、機構投資人持股比例及資訊不對稱等因素之調節效果。以 2008 年至 2022 年美國企業為樣本，利用專利數量與被引用數作為創新指標，並採用縱橫斷面迴歸分析。實證結果顯示，企業創新與違約風險呈顯著負相關，惟當 CEO 過度自信或機構持股比例較高時，此負向關係有所削弱；而資訊不對稱程度越高時，創新對降低違約風險的效果則越明顯。穩健性檢定亦支持主要結論。本研究強調企業創新與財務風險管理之間的交互作用。

This study examines the impact of corporate innovation on firms’ probability of default, with a focus on the moderating effects of CEO overconfidence, institutional ownership, and information asymmetry. Using a sample of U.S. firms from 2008 to 2022, innovation is proxied by patent counts and citations, and the analysis is conducted through panel data regressions. The empirical results show that higher innovation is associated with lower default risk. However, this negative relationship is weakened in firms with more overconfident CEOs and higher institutional ownership, while it is strengthened under higher information asymmetry. Robustness checks using patent citations confirm the main findings. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the interaction between innovation activities and financial risk management.