探討氣候因子對臺灣的森林遊樂區遊客數量的影響

Abstract

本研究探討臺灣森林遊樂區之遊客數量與氣候因子（包括氣溫、降雨量及相對濕度）之間的關聯性，旨在了解遊客的旅遊模式及季節性變化對森林遊樂區管理與發展的影響。透過對歷年遊客數量資料與氣候因子的統計分析，本研究試圖檢驗臺灣森林遊樂區遊客數量是否跨年期是穩定的，並評估不同氣候因子對遊客數量的影響程度。 研究結果顯示，臺灣森林遊樂區遊客數量確實存在跨年期的穩定性。除此之外，在氣候因子影響方面，溫帶或寒帶區域之森林遊樂區的氣溫與遊客數量呈正相關，而氣溫較高區域之森林遊樂區則未存在顯著相關性。在降雨量方面，除了富源國家森林遊樂區之外，降雨量與各個森林遊樂區遊客數量皆呈顯著負相關。在相對濕度方面，較高溫的森林遊樂區（除墾丁國家森林遊樂區外）與相對濕度皆呈負相關，而較寒冷的如合歡山國家森林遊樂區亦顯示負相關性。本研究之結果可為森林遊樂區的相關單位提供實證依據，以制定更符合氣候條件與遊客行為的遊樂資源規劃與管理策略。

This study examines the relationship between tourist arrivals in forest recreation areas in Taiwan and climate factors, including temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity, with the aim of understanding tourist behavior patterns and seasonal variations that influence the management and development of these areas. By conducting a statistical analysis of historical tourist arrival data and climate variables, this study attempts to examine whether the tourist arrival of forest recreation areas in Taiwan is stable across years. and to assess the extent to which different climate factors influence tourist arrivals. The results indicate that forest recreation areas in Taiwan do indeed show stability across years in tourist arrivals. Additionally, regarding the influence of climate factors, temperature in temperate or cold-region forest recreation areas exhibits a positive correlation with tourist arrivals, whereas no significant correlation is observed in higher-temperature forest recreation areas. In terms of precipitation, tourist arrivals in all forest recreation areas, except for the Fuyuan National Forest Recreation Area, show a significant negative correlation with precipitation levels. Regarding relative humidity, tourist arrivals in higher-temperature forest recreation areas (except for Kenting National Forest Recreation Area) exhibit a negative correlation with relative humidity, as does the colder Hehuanshan National Forest Recreation Area. The findings of this study can provide empirical evidence for relevant authorities of forest recreation areas to develop resource planning and management strategies that better align with climatic conditions and visitor behavior.