竹產業鏈永續經營可行性分析－以越南某公司為例

Abstract

COP28 / UAE 2023 UNFCCC 杜拜年會首次要求國際社會逐步擺脫化石燃料 (Fossil Fuel) 的依賴藉以減少溫室氣體排放 (GHG)，期以達成「巴黎議定書 (Paris Agreement 2015)」、「2050淨零排放目標」已是全球共識。 竹類 (Bambosoideae) 屬於禾本科植物 (Poaceae)，具有生長快速、再生能力強、短週期熟成 (3~5年) 即可利用之特性，碳吸存功能CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage, Sequestration)是一般闊葉樹1~3倍，主要分佈於赤道南北周邊亞洲、非洲、南美洲、東南亞地區，竹子與當地居民傳統生活、歷史文化、社會經濟、初級加工業發展息息相關，也是重要生質再生能源 (Renewable Bio-energy) 之一。 越南屬發展中國家「Developing Country」，擁有豐富的竹類天然資源和充裕的勞動力。在國際援外組織贊助「生態補償基金 (Eco-Compensation Fund)」及當地政府積極政策鼓勵下有利於發展「原料密集 (Raw Material Intensive)」、「勞力密集 (Labor Intensive)」、「資本密集 (Capital Intensive)」之竹產業垂直整合永續經營之「規模經濟」商業模式，含「上游原料供應竹林集約經營」、「中游竹產品加工清潔生產節能減碳」及「下游高附加值產品銷售」，同時執行森林認證 (FM & CoC) 以及LCA全生命週期碳足跡盤查認證取得碳信用 (Carbon Credit) 或VCU (Verified Carbon Unit)，保障原料合法供應及竹產品履歷可溯來源。本專案綜合效益包括竹林基地碳信用額度208,000 tCO2e/年、30,000 ton/年竹顆粒 (Bamboo Pellet) 生質燃料 (Biomass Fuel) 負碳排可抵換 (Substitute / Offset) 中質煙煤碳排量約73,500 tCO2e/年，以15年營運週期，10年直線折舊，通膨3.5%，銀行利率8%，所得稅17%，總投資金額 USD 608萬，用Excel 財務軟體測算得：淨現值USD 3,466萬，内部報酬率IRR為37%，BCR為1.43，現金流穩定USD 371萬，還本期約3年。綜上若無外部重大政經事件干擾，本專案應為可行性極高。

COP-28 / UAE 2023, UNFCCC requires countries for the first time to gradually wean their dependence on fossil fuels and reduce the (GHG) greenhouse gas emissions to comply with the “Paris Agreement 2015” to curb global warming and reduce atmospheric emissions year by year. The goal is to keep temperatures 1.5 to 2.0 degrees Celsius below pre-industrial period levels. Bamboo (Bambusoideae) belongs to the (Poaceae) plants that grow quickly, it can be used after a short period of maturation (3-5 years) and have strong carbon sequestration capabilities. They are mainly distributed in Asia, Africa, South Americas, and Southeast Asia. Bamboo is closely linked to the lives of residents, history and culture, social economy, and primary industry development. Vietnam is a “Developing Country” with rich bamboo natural resources and abundant labor force. It has been long-term support from the G-7 Industrial Countries and International foreign aid organizations such as the World Bank by sponsoring the “Eco-Compensation Fund” and under the conditions encouraged by local government policies. Depends on these advantages, Vietnam is standing on a good position to conduct “labor intensive”, “Raw Material intensive” and “Capital intensive” bamboo fully integrated industry business, furthermore can be combine with “Forest Certification” & “Full Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)” to match the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This paper conducts a “pre-feasibility analysis” of the “Bamboo Pellet” project based on domestic and international research reports and post practical work experience try to formulate a sustainable ideal business model. The financial CAPEX calculation is based on a 15-year operating cycle. Result showing: The present value NPV is USD 34.66 millions, and the internal rate of return IRR is 37%, the Back-cost ratio is 1.43 years, Payback period 3 years. In summary, this project which in technology aspect is workable, in economic aspect is profitable, and in feasibility aspect is feasible.