韓國對外政策的轉型邏輯與制約因素：從文在寅到尹錫悅

Abstract

本研究探討韓國在美中戰略競爭格局下的外交政策調整，聚焦文在寅與尹錫悅政府在對美、對中關係上的戰略轉變。透過比較個案研究法，本文指出韓國已從文在寅時期的「戰略模糊」與避險策略，逐步移動至尹錫悅政府所主導的「戰略一致性」與「選擇性抗衡」。此一轉變並非單一政權更替所致，而是多重內外因素交織下的結果：對外，美國印太戰略強化、北韓軍事威脅升高、中國從「經濟夥伴」轉變為「制度性競爭對手」；對內，則包括保守派執政邏輯、媒體話語、財閥利益結構與輿論動員。本文發現，韓國對中國的戰略顧慮正逐步解除，外交政策也因此取得更大操作空間，展現出安全上依賴美國、經貿上去風險化、外交上價值聯盟的多軌路徑。整體而言，韓國的外交正在完成從「恐懼報復」到「主動抗衡」的結構性再定位，並揭示中等國家如何在大國競爭中尋求有限自主。研究最後亦對未來韓國外交戰略的持續性與內部掣肘提出初步觀察與政策建議。

This study investigates South Korea’s diplomatic realignment under the intensifying U.S.–China strategic rivalry, focusing on the shift in foreign policy between the Moon Jae-in and Yoon Suk-yeol administrations. Using a comparative case study approach, this paper finds that South Korea has transitioned from Moon’s “strategic ambiguity” and hedging posture to Yoon’s “strategic alignment” and selective balancing. This shift is not solely attributable to a change in leadership, but rather the result of intersecting internal and external factors: externally, the rise of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, heightened North Korean military threats, and China’s transformation from an “economic partner” to an “institutional competitor”; internally, the conservative ruling logic, media discourse, chaebol interests, and public opinion mobilization. The study reveals that South Korea’s strategic sensitivity toward potential Chinese retaliation is diminishing, allowing greater maneuverability in its foreign policy. This is reflected in a multi-track approach: reliance on the U.S. for security, de-risking in trade, and alignment with value-based diplomacy. Overall, South Korea’s foreign policy is undergoing a structural redefinition—from “fear of reprisal” to “proactive counterbalancing”—and offers insight into how middle powers navigate limited autonomy amid great power competition. The study concludes with preliminary observations and policy suggestions regarding the sustainability and constraints of Korea’s strategic trajectory.