美中競爭下中歐國家對中決策之變動： 以捷克與匈牙利為例

Abstract

中國與中東歐國家於2010年代前期，因16+1合作機制及一帶一路基礎建設投資的開展，加深了雙邊在經貿與政治方面的合作，多數中東歐國家均期待中國的投資能夠帶動中東歐地區在2008年金融危機後的經濟表現，中國也陸續與匈牙利、捷克等國家簽訂雙邊諒解備忘錄，並建立每年度的國家領導人會晤機制，深化16+1國家間的連結。然而自2018年至今，部分中東歐國家的對中外交立場開始出現轉向，雙邊關係從積極發展友好合作到逐漸降溫，甚至對中國持較敵對、批判的態度。

在此背景下，為分析影響中東歐國家對中決策的關鍵因素，本文採取Kenneth Waltz所提出的三層次分析架構，並以國際體系的美中競爭、國內政治的權力集中程度，以及中東歐國家中決策者個人偏好三個面向切入，探討三層次因素如何影響2013至2023年間，中東歐國家中對中立場相異的捷克和匈牙利兩國之外交決策。本文研究結果顯示，在近年中國影響力擴張、美中戰略競爭持續的國際環境下，影響中東歐國家對中決策的因素不再由中國潛在的經濟誘因所主導，在國際體系的美中競爭因素下，匈牙利和捷克兩國與美國的外交關係緊密與否，對兩國在美中競爭下的中國政策轉向有顯著影響。而國內權力集中程度以及決策者個人層次兩項因素，在美中競爭的結構性因素下也具有相當的解釋力，係衡量捷克與匈牙利對中決策的重要因素。在現今中東歐國家與中國、台灣外交關係持續變動發展的情勢下，此架構所聚焦的三層次因素可作為理解捷、匈對中決策制定之要素，及為分析往後捷中與匈中關係變化提供一整合性視角。

In the early 2010s, Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and China deepened their economic and political collaboration through the establishment of the 16+1 Format and infrastructure investments under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Most CEE countries anticipated that Chinese investments would stimulate the region's economic recovery following the 2008 financial crisis. China also signed bilateral memorandums of understanding with countries like Hungary and the Czech Republic and established annual leadership summits to strengthen connections among the 16+1 countries. However, since 2018, the diplomatic stance of some CEE countries toward China has shifted, with bilateral relations cooling from initial enthusiasm to a more critical or even adversarial tone.

Against this backdrop, this study adopts Kenneth Waltz's three-level analysis framework to examine the key factors influencing CEE countries' policy decisions toward China. Focusing on three dimensions—the international system's U.S.-China competition, the degree of domestic political centralization, and the individual preferences of decision-makers in CEE countries—this paper analyzes how these three factors shaped the China policy of the Czech Republic and Hungary, two countries with differing stances toward China, between 2013 and 2023.

The findings reveal that in the context of China's expanding influence and ongoing U.S.-China strategic competition, the factors shaping CEE countries' decisions toward China are no longer primarily driven by China's potential economic incentives. Within the framework of U.S.-China competition, Hungary's and the Czech Republic's diplomatic relations with the United States significantly influenced their policy shifts toward China. Domestic political centralization and the individual-level preferences of decision-makers also provide substantial explanatory power, making them critical factors in evaluating these countries' policy decisions.

Given the dynamic developments in CEE countries' diplomatic relations with China and Taiwan, this three-level analytical framework offers a valuable perspective for understanding the decision-making factors of the Czech Republic and Hungary. It also provides an integrated lens for analyzing future changes in their bilateral relations with China.