中共新疆反恐政策效益分析(2008-2020): 經濟維穩的視角

Abstract

近十多年來，中國在應對恐怖主義此種非傳統安全的議題方面，受到國際熱議，特別是中國為防範恐怖主義而在新疆實施的各面向政策。中國過去較著重於新疆經濟發展，並嘗試透過強化基礎建設的方式來抑制極端思想的蔓延。然而，基礎建設資金的投入是否真有成效是值得關注的議題。因此本研究透過新疆統計年鑑及Global Terrorism Database的數據資料，研究2008年至2020年間政府基礎建設資金的投入是否有助於降低新疆恐怖主義事件的發生機率。透過多元迴歸分析模型，本研究發現中國在新疆的基礎建設投資在降低恐怖攻擊事件方面有顯著的影響效果。此外，本研究亦透過個案及政策分析發現，除了基礎建設資金的長期投入外，若再輔以社會控制相關政策，將更有效的抑制恐怖主義的蔓延，而相關的抑制效果在習近平上任後尤其明顯。

Over the past decade, China's approach to addressing terrorism as a non-traditional security issue has garnered significant international attention, particularly regarding the various policies implemented in Xinjiang to counter-terrorism. Historically, China has focused on the economic development of Xinjiang, attempting to curb the spread of extremism through strengthening infrastructure. However, the effectiveness of these infrastructure investments in reducing terrorism remains a topic of concern. This study utilizes data from the Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook and the Global Terrorism Database to examine whether government infrastructure investments between 2008 and 2020 contributed to reducing terrorist incidents in Xinjiang. Through multiple regression analysis, the study finds that China's infrastructure investments in Xinjiang have had a significant impact on reducing the occurrence of terrorist attacks. Furthermore, the study includes case and policy analysis, revealing that in addition to long-term infrastructure investments, incorporating social control policies has proven even more effective in suppressing the spread of terrorism. This suppressive effect became particularly evident after Xi Jinping assumed office.