結合系統動態與機器學習模型建立水-能源-糧食-氣候-土地鏈結於漁電共生

Abstract

近年來氣候變遷的影響，傳統養殖漁業面對氣候風險提高，開發新型永續的養殖模式有望降低養殖風險，本研究目的為探討在面對氣候風險的衝擊下，使用漁電共生系統相較傳統養殖模式是否能促進其調適能力、增加韌性，同時具低碳生產的潛力。研究區域位於雲林縣台西鄉之海水養殖研究中心，針對文蛤養殖的傳統模式及漁電共生系統，以系統動態技術分別建構水-能源-文蛤生產-土地-氣候鏈結模型，並透過機器學習進行模式優化，分析在氣候變遷影響下，兩者的資源使用及經濟效益差異。研究結果顯示相較於傳統養殖，漁電共生40%遮蔽率的太陽能板可以提供養殖池遮蔽功能，降低陽光直射到水體的程度，水溫平均低2.5°C，且水資源總使用效益顯著提升30%；所產生之綠電可替代燃煤發電，降低溫室氣體的產生；雖然文蛤總產量下降27%，但綠電收益，增加漁民收入來源，可以彌補文蛤產量損失收益。本研究進一步探討全球暖化對文蛤養殖產業的潛在影響，針對傳統養殖以及漁電共生模型進行敏感度分析，比較在室外氣溫上升0.5℃和1℃時，這兩個模型的變異性，結果顯示若氣溫上升1°C，為確保文蛤的適宜生長環境，需更多的海水源以調節水溫及鹽度，水資源消耗急遽上升，需更有效的水資源操作管理。本研究透過不同太陽能板的遮蔽率設置，模擬了遮蔽率從0%至70%對文蛤總收成產量和發電量的影響。結果顯示當太陽能板遮蔽率設定在45%左右時，文蛤的產量將會逐漸低於7成，表示在增設太陽能板時，需要在糧食產量和發電量之間取得平衡，以提高產業的永續性。整體而言，漁電共生的綠能發電以及資源使用效益提升，提供養殖漁業邁向良好的低碳轉型機會，是極具低碳潛力的新穎養殖系統，對產業及環境永續發展具正面效益。

In recent years, due to the impact of climate change, traditional aquaculture fisheries have faced increased climate risks. The development of new sustainable aquaculture models is expected to reduce these risks. The purpose of this study is to explore the use of fish and electricity symbiosis systems compared with traditional ones in the face of climate risks. The study aims to determine whether this breeding model can promote adaptability, increase resilience, and have the potential for low-carbon production. This study explores whether using aquavoltaic systems, compared to traditional aquaculture methods, can enhance adaptation capacity, increase resilience, and promote low-carbon production potential in the face of climate risks. The study area is located at the Mariculture Research Center Taihsi Station, Yunlin County, focusing on the traditional and aquavoltaic systems of clam farming. We constructed models linking water, energy, clam production, land, and climate using system dynamics techniques. Then, we optimized these models with machine learning to analyze the differences in resource usage and economic benefits under the influence of climate change. The results show that, compared to traditional aquaculture, the aquavoltaic system with 40% shading provided by solar panels reduces direct sunlight exposure to the water, lowering the average water temperature by 2.5°C and significantly enhancing water resource utilization efficiency by 30%. The green electricity generated can replace coal-fired power, reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Although the total clam yield decreased by 27%, the income from green electricity compensates for the loss in clam yield, providing an additional revenue stream for fishers. This study further explores the potential impact of global warming on the hard clam aquaculture industry by conducting sensitivity analyses on both traditional and aquavoltaic systems. It compares the variability of these two models when outdoor temperatures rise by 0.5°C and 1°C. The results show that if the temperature increases by 1°C, more seawater is needed to regulate water temperature and salinity to ensure a suitable growth environment for hard clams. Consequently, water resource consumption increases significantly, necessitating more effective management. This study simulated the impact of solar panel shading rates ranging from 0% to 70% on total clam yield and power generation. The results indicate that when the shading rate is set at around 45%, clam yield gradually drops below 70%, suggesting that a balance between food production and power generation needs to be struck to enhance sustainability. Overall, the aquavoltaic system's green energy production and improved resource use efficiency present a promising opportunity for low-carbon transformation in aquaculture, contributing positively to the sustainable development of both industry and the environment.